Sunday, December 03, 2006

Eyal Zisser on the Beirut peaceful protest and its repercussions

"What can be expected, therefore, is a typical Lebanese bazaar, where both sides will ultimately emerge only partially appeased: Siniora will be forced to surrender to some of Nasrallah's' demands and Nasrallah will have to detract some of his other demands.

This would suffice to postpone, albeit not to prevent the next crisis and the one following it, because the fight for controlling Lebanon will remain without a clear defining factor.

But in Lebanon as in Lebanon, rationale does not necessarily determine the evolvement of events. The quiet protests by Hizbullah supporters may get out control, and alternately Siniora may find himself being forced to resign. However, what is more likely is that Pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud will submit his letter of resignation to Siniora.

As it's currently difficult to imagine the reigning Lebanese parliament finding a majority for a different cabinet to that of Siniora's, the only respite from this crisis would be to hold new elections. "

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