Jenny White, one of the leading experts in the U.S. on Turkey, who is now in Istanbul, is a bit pessimistic:
"Next Monday is D-Day, when the court meets on closing the AKP. A decision may be announced that day or the next. Hold on to your hat. I'll be very surprised if they don't close it down, but with the vast Ergenekon conspiracy of coup attempts being unearthed here now and new arrests every week, maybe they'll think twice. But I doubt it."
Her excellent blog Kamil Pasha, mentioned here before, is well worth extended visits.
Also, listen to the 2008 Campagna-Kerven lecture from April. It remains highly relevant.