Is a "special" Turkey disappearing?

This weakly argued piece from a Turkish scholar based at a leading pro-Israel thinktank collects a variety of misrepresented facts with the purpose of showing that Turkey is in serious danger of going over to the dark side of illiberal Islamism.

For instance, the author blames stalled EU accession talks on AKP, whereas the real story is would include a number of European characters, not to mention the Turkish army.

Public opinion polls in Turkey have shown very strong disapproval of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and, more recently, the Israeli assault on the Gaza strip. The ruling party in Turkey did not create that opinion, though the actions of the Turkish Prime Minister in Davos last week certainly exemplifies the broader mood. Erdogan did not simply accuse President Shimon Peres of "killing people" but of using excessive violence in Gaza and killing civilians. Many non-Muslims and non-Turks share precicely that critical point of view.

The Turkish-Israeli alliance--which is a central focus of the OPED--is of crucial importance to Israel. Indeed, other than the Israeli relationship with the U.S., there is no other relationship as important to Israel. Yet, while Turkey has maintained that relationship, Turkey also has been re-orienting its foreign policy to take account of shifting geo-politics, as well as energy needs. One major factor in that shift is the U.S. invasion of Iraq, which increased the prospects for a revival of separatist Kurdish sentiment. Precisely to stifle that possibility, Turkey and Iran have found grounds for cooperation, but the impetus comes less from the AKP than the Turkish National Security Council dominated by the military. This does not suggest, contrary to the OPED, that Turkey is turning away from NATO although, as the U.S. learned in 2003, Turkey was no more ready than many other NATO allies to support George Bush's war in Iraq.

As the piece notes, there are some indications of rising anti-Semitism in Turkey, but the roots of that behavior lie far to the right of the AKP.

The author claims--based on UN data that he does not elaborate--that Turkish woman are falling behind Saudi women in terms of gender empowerment. This is a claim that even a casual visitor to Turkey would find rather strange, given the visibility of educated Turkish women in a variety of professions , not to mention the bureaucracy.

There are certainly aspects of AKP illiberalism that should cause concern, but what this piece does is offer a reductionist argument that probably reveals more about the political values and preferences than about Turkish political culture or geopolitics.

Soner Cagaptay - Turkey's Turn From the West - washingtonpost.com

Added reaction in Zaman.

Turkish President plays pay-back

Earlier this year, the Islamically-oriented AK party attempted to lift a ban on women wearing head scarves entering Turkish universities. The effort was then overturned by the Constitutional Court, which ruled that the wearing of head scarves violates Turkish secular norms. For many secular Turks, the head scarves represented an attempt to Islamicize the universities, but for advocates of lifting the ban the scarves are simply an expression of personal freedom, in this case to dress conservatively. With the ban in place, religiously conservative Turkish women must either forego a university education or compromise their morals.
President Gul, a member of the Ak party, passed over candidates for rectors' positions when those candidates worked to thwart the lifting of the scarf ban.
Turkish Professors Quit as President Rejects Rectors Who Opposed Lifting Head-Scarf Ban - Chronicle.com

A ruling is expected Monday on the state prosecutor's petition to declare the AK party illegal

Jenny White, one of the leading experts in the U.S. on Turkey, who is now in Istanbul, is a bit pessimistic:

"Next Monday is D-Day, when the court meets on closing the AKP. A decision may be announced that day or the next. Hold on to your hat. I'll be very surprised if they don't close it down, but with the vast Ergenekon conspiracy of coup attempts being unearthed here now and new arrests every week, maybe they'll think twice. But I doubt it."

Her excellent blog Kamil Pasha, mentioned here before, is well worth extended visits.

Also, listen to the 2008 Campagna-Kerven lecture from April. It remains highly relevant.

Where Have Old Friends Gone? U.S.-Turkish Relations Since the Iraq War

Video link to the annual Campagna-Kerven lecture at Boston University. The annual lecture is hosted by Boston University and it features some of the premier voices on modern Turkey. This year's speaker is Henri J. Barkey of Lehigh University, whose analysis includes some disconcerting conclusions, in particular his prediction that the Turkish high court will declare the Ak Party illegal.

BUniverse - Henri J. Barkey: Where Have Old Friends Gone? U.S.-Turkish Relations Since the Iraq War: "Henri J. Barkey, chair of the department of international relations at Lehigh University, gives the 2008 Campagna-Kerven Lecture on Modern Turkey, the 13th in the series. He discusses a changing international system beginning with the end of the Cold War, new perceptions between the United States and Turkey, and different national interest issues within each country."