Monday, September 29, 2008

The logic behind the latest Lebanon bombing

Even before the May events, there have been deep worries in Lebanon about the resurgence of Salafi groups especially in the environs of Tripoli. There are four factors that drive the attacks on army connected targets, in my view:
1.Vengeance for the 2007 suppression of Fatah al-Islam in the Nahr al-Barid fighting.
2. Perception that the army is aligned with Hezbollah (army orders have stressed cooperation with the resistance, and the recent policy statement privileged Hezbollah).
3. Judgment that Saad al-Din al-Hariri, with whom Salafi groups had aligned, was shown to be weak. While the Salafis will take his money, they are less inclined to rest their fate in his sometimes shaky hands.
4. Role of external players, which in this case refers to hardline Saudis, who wish to undermine the consensus government in Beirut. That consensus government concedes a major political voice to Hezbollah led opposition. / World - Lebanese blast mars electoral law vote

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