Showing posts with label Lebanon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lebanon. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Fourth edition (May 2014): Hezbollah: A Short History

New Prologue and Expanded Afterword.

"Best introduction....succeeds in rising above the passions of the debate."--As'ad AbuKhalil (Journal of Palestine Studies).  Jimmy Carter reading Hezbollah.  "Best recent study on Hezbollah"--Fareed Zakaria (Newsweek). "Norton has pulled off a noteworthy feat by producing an accessible yet nuanced study of Hizbollah--a rare achievement in academic research."—Melani Cammett (MESA Bulletin). "[T]he most authoritative, up-to-date analysis of this enigmantic group....Piquant anecdotes and richly textured details make the book enjoyable reading."--Kristian P. Alexander (Middle East Policy). "A series of related essays, each concise and provocative, this is an excellent introduction for the novice."--Joel Gordon (Journal of Military History). “A cogent analysis of [Hezbollah's] emergence and impact on Lebanese politics”—Sheldon Kirsher (Canadian Jewish News). "Norton deserves praise for writing an insightful and multilayered work accessible to a wide...readership."—Rula Abisaab (Journal of Palestine Studies). "...thorough study of Hezbollah, updated with a new afterword in 2008, retraces Hezbollah’s history, from its emergence to its recent struggle against Israel in 2006."—Lina Zuhour (Arab Reform Initiative). "It's wonderful, the best I've read in English"--Anthony Shadid (2007 post). "For first time readers on Lebanon and Hizbullah I highly recommend..."—Sami Hermez (International Journal of Middle East Studies). “This short, authoritative book, based on first-hand experience, efficiently analyses [Hezbollah's] status"—Iain Fianalayson (The Times). "America's leading scholar on Hezbollah"—Joshua M. Landis. “Highly informative, jargon-free book...An objective account of the genesis and development of Hezbollah....Highly recommended.”—N. Entessar (Choice). “A good, concise survey by a perceptive student of the Lebanese Shia”—David Gardner (Financial Times). “Thorough, articulate portrait of Hezbollah”—Publishers Weekly. “Norton's timely Hezbollah chronicles that dramatic evolution and its sweeping implications for the region and beyond”—Jonathan Finer (Washington Post Book World). "Everyone who wants to understand the complexities of the Middle East . . . should read this book”—Bruce Elder (Sydney Morning Herald). “Recommended”—Harvard Bookstore. “Norton elucidates . . . domestic and international complexities in Hezbollah”—Allen McDuffee (In These Times). "He ends on a tentative note, voicing hope that Hezbollah will play a "constructive" role in Lebanon. One can only hope he's right."—David Rosenberg (Bloomberg News). “Short personal anecdotes from his time in Lebanon add both color and authority to the book”—Beryl C.D. Lipton (Harvard Crimson). “An excellent summary that ends with a dramatic question: ‘What next?’"—Kail C. Ellis (Middle East Journal). "An excellent primer"—(The Colby File). "Most fluent survey of Hezbollah to date_covers the Lebanese resistance group from its inception to the current Lebanese political crisis”—Margeret Hall (Washington Report on Middle East Affairs). : “In an easily read, easily comprehended book, Norton traces the origins and history of Hezbollah”—Suzi Brozman (Atlanta Jewish Times) “The many complex and often changing dimensions of Hezbollah are presented in the book in a clear, concise manner”—Rami G. Khouri (Daily Star). "Suggested reading"--(NPR). "There is no better person to address these questions…than Norton, who has been studying Lebanon, and especially the Lebanese Shiites, for longer than Hezbollah has been in existence. He offers here a brisk and balanced history"—L. Carl Brown (Foreign Affairs).  

Kindle version.
iTunes book.
Google Play.
Barnes and Noble.
Kno ebook.
Kobo ebook.



Thursday, December 08, 2011

Islam in the West: a good selection of essays in the new Harvard Review

The essays are, for the most part, conference papers that have been nicely edited for publication. Pieces by Richard Bulliet on Islamic reformation, Jytte Klausen on the Danish cartoon episode, Lucia Volk on youthful returnees to Lebanon and the cultural contradictions they confront, and Michael Freedman on promoting political reform and civil society are among the several that I found valuable.

Monday, January 17, 2011

PDF version of June 2009 Senate hearings assessing Hezbollah

Some of you are familiar with last summer's hearings before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  I posted the videos of the hearings in the summer. The "Committee Print" is finally available, and it may be downloaded here.


Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Is a Lebanon-Israel war coming?

A variety of intellectuals and scholars comment on the possibility and logic for new Israel-Lebanon war centering on the prospect that Israel will launch a new war.  Contributors include Rashid Khalidi, Noam Chomsky, Norman Finklestein, Helena Cobban, John Meirsheimer, Mu'in Rabani, Michael Desch, 'Ashaf Kafuri,  and me.  The war would be a punitive campaign that enacts great punishment on Lebanon, but would be likely to strengthen not weaken Hezbollah, as well fomenting much anti-U.S. sentiment. There is also doubt expressed, notably by Meirsheimer, that the Obama administration would behave very much differently than the recent Bush administration in terms of preventing or ending the war.

As published in al-Akhbar.

Here is my contribution:


We can construct a very rational argument for Israel to maintain the status quo vis-à-vis Lebanon rather than attacking for the ostensible purpose of disarming Hezbollah.  Notwithstanding the tree incident in early August, the border has been very quiet since the 2006 war ended.  With the exception of contested areas of the occupied Golan Heights, notably the Shiba’ farms, the border area was also quiet from the Israeli withdrawal in 2000 until the July 2006.  Since the 1990s the Hezbollah-Israel rules-of-the-game have been well understood and both belligerents have been generally measured in their actions (as opposed to their rhetoric) and reactions.  July-August 2006 was an exception, of course.  
Roiling inter-sectarian tensions, particularly between Shi’is and Sunnis, have erupted in deadly clashes, as they did this week between Hezbollahis and Ahbashis.  Even so, Hezbollah’s resistance narrative is widely supported in the Shi’i community, even if it is derided in some other Lebanese quarters.  The November 2009 ministerial statement that launched the current government embraced the right of “resistance”, while simultaneously and incongruously committing the government to the enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.  Although naïve commentary in the U.S. focuses on the need for the Lebanese Army to disarm Hezbollah, it is obvious that resistance to Israel is popular in the ranks and in the officer corps, and the prospects for Hezbollah being disarmed by the army are zilch.  
If Israel were to attack Lebanon with the objective of weakening, if not defeating Hezbollah and destroying a significant proportion of the group’s arsenal of rockets and missiles, it runs the risk of falling short.  If so, Hezbollah’s resistance narrative would not be undermined but validated, again.  Israeli military sources have argued recently that Hezbollah has “bases” in  more than 100 villages in the South.  This suggests an Israeli campaign that would wreak even wider destruction than the 2006 war.  A landscape of smoldering ruins across southern Lebanon is more likely to inspire not dampen support for Hezbollah.
In addition, Israel would not be unscathed.  Withering rocket fire in northern Israel would cause the displacement of a million or more Israelis.  If Hezbollah makes good on the promise to retaliate-in-kind for Israeli strikes on Lebanese cities then the dangers will cascade for Israel.
This adds up to a rational case for not attacking Lebanon.  
Perhaps, but there is good reason for concern that the Israelis will not be deterred.
Israel—with very generous U.S. support—is committed to maintaining its military superiority over any combination of regional foes.  In addition, Israeli strategic culture emphasizes the need for Israel to “maintain its deterrence”.  This means that Israel’s foes will not seriously contemplate attacking Israel because their defeat is certain and Israel will inflict disproportionate military power should they try.  The punitive campaign against Gaza in December 2008-December 2009 is an example of the latter.  
Particularly in the case of Hezbollah, Israel faces a re-armed foe that flaunts its contempt for Israeli hegemony.  Given a pretext or a miscalculation, it is not far-fetched to imagine an Israeli war plan premised on a fierce and rapid ground attack and an accompanying devastating air campaign designed to overcome Lebanese resistance in a matter of weeks.  Israel would ostensibly demonstrate that it will not be deterred by Hezbollah.  
If Israel launches an air campaign on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, it is axiomatic that a pre-emptive attack on Lebanon would be on the menu because it is assumed that the first wave of Iranian retaliation would come in the form of Hezbollahi rockets. Both the Bush and the Obama administrations have firmly counseled Israel against bombing Iran, and there is little enthusiasm in the Pentagon for starting a war with Iran.  
Given Israel’s strategic culture and its fixation on “maintaining its deterrence”, an Israeli onslaught into Lebanon would also be justified as thwarting Iran’s hegemonial ambitions while reducing the threat posed to Israel by Hezbollah.  In the Bush White House, Senior National Security Council officials actively encouraged the Gaza War.  The Obama White House is far more likely to urge restraint on Israel, but this will not stop Israel from starting a new war if it elects to do so.
Prudent counsel may prevail, and the tense conditions along the Israel-Lebanon border may persist for some time to come.  Unfortunately, unwise and counter-productive decisions by Israel have become increasingly common. Plus, Israeli officials have often succumbed to the fallacy that inflicting pain on Lebanon reduces support for Hezbollah.  This usually does not work, and often has the opposite effect. 


Sunday, July 04, 2010

Tuesday, June 08, 2010

Senate Foreign Relations Committee, hearings on Hezbollah

Witnesses inclue: Assistant Secretary Jeffrey Feltman, Counter-terrorism Coordinator Daniel Benjamin, Amb. Ryan Crocker, Danielle Pletka of AEI, and yours truly.

Monday, June 01, 2009

Joining the caravan of electoral monitors for Lebanon's June 7 elections

For the next days I will be working with the Carter Center as part of the election observation mission. I will withhold my own comments on the election until after the Carter Center offers its initial assessment of the election, which is tentatively scheduled to be on June 10th.

If time allows, I will post on other topics in the interim.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

The Daily Star - Politics - Parliament puts off talks on reviving Constitutional Council

Lebanon's Constitutional Council, which might have mitigated the crisis that stalemated politics from late 2006 until the Doha accord on May 21, 2008. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government was not anxious to appoint new members of the Council, apparently to avoid inconvenient rulings.
The Daily Star - Politics - Parliament puts off talks on reviving Constitutional Council

The Lebanese Parliament on Wednesday postponed talks on a draft law that calls for an extension of the deadline to appoint members to the country's Constitutional Council, whose activity has been paralyzed since 2005. Speaker Nabih Berri asked the Administration and Justice Committee to examine the draft with Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar next week. The proposal may be presented and discussed at another legislative session later in October.

Parliament convened in an ordinary session on Wednesday, in the absence of heavyweight MPs Walid Jumblatt, Michel Aoun and Saad Hariri.

According to As-Safir newspaper, MP Robert Ghanem, head of the Administration and Justice Committee, submitted a proposal to extend the deadline for submitting candidacies for membership on the Constitutional Council.

The daily said discussion of the Ghanem proposal had been expected to take up an essential part of the parliamentary debate on Wednesday, especially after Najjar submitted a draft law aiming to introduce reforms to the makeup and by-laws of the council.

However, talks were postponed till next week to give the committee enough time to look into both proposals.

"Reviving the Constitutional Council is a pressing matter," Berri told As-Safir in comments published Wednesday.

The Taif Accord, which put an end to Lebanon's 1975-1990 Civil War called for the establishment of a Constitutional Council to "interpret the constitution, to observe the constitutionality of the laws, and to settle disputes and contests emanating from presidential and parliamentary elections." The current council's term ended in 2005, and since then efforts have failed to form a new council.

Speaking to Voice of Lebanon Radio on Wednesday, Ghanem said the proposal he submitted was aimed at speeding up the formation of the council. "Reviving the council is our main target and all other details can be discussed afterwards," he said, adding that he and Najjar shared similar views on the matter.

Ghanem said that as soon as Parliament approves the draft law he submitted, candidates would be expected to submit their documents within 15 days.

"Then Parliament would call for a session to elect five of the members of the council and the government would appoint the other five," he added.

Ghanem said he expected the formation of the Constitutional Council within two months.

Also during Wednesday's session, Parliament announced that all citizens who paid overdue car-inspection and municipality fees in 2008 would be exempted from 90 percent of their late fees.


Meanwhile, the Finance and Budget Committee, headed by MP Samir Azar, is expected to hold a session on Monday to discuss a number of issues, including granting the Cabinet the right to draft legislation pertaining to customs. The Public Works, Transport, Energy and Water Committee, headed by MP Mohammed Qabbani, is also expected to convene on Monday.

Separately, Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea asked former Minister Suleiman Franjieh on Wednesday to "speed up the holding of a meeting ... to ease tensions in the North." Speaking after a meeting with MP Jawad Boulos, Geagea said: "Any delay in holding this meeting might worsen the situation and result in dramatic developments."

The prospective meeting between Geagea and Franjieh falls within an initiative launched by the Maronite League to broker inter-Christian reconciliation, especially after a clash in the Northern town of Bsarma on September 17, which led to the death of two people.

The LF leader also accused some politicians and their "media outlets" of disregarding Taif Accord by what he called their "rejection of reconciliation and civil peace."

"What country will we build if some politicians and their media outlets continue to live in a state of war?" he asked.

Geagea said that he was expecting a meeting between him and Franjieh to be held early this week and that he was informed by Maronite League head Joseph Tarabay that the latter was still discussing the date with the Marada Movement.

Also on Wednesday, the Central News Agency (CNA) reported that a joint Future Movement-Hizbullah security committee meeting would be held at the Helou Internal Security Forces Barracks in the Beirut neighborhood of Mar Elias in the coming days.

The CNA quoted Future Movement sources as saying that the meeting would discuss the second phase of the campaign to remove political banners and posters from the streets of Beirut, including the airport highway.

The sources said that the 99 percent of political posters and banners in the capital had already been taken down.

The sources added the Future Movement had "fully abided by the agreement reached between the two parties in the first phase of the campaign." - The Daily Star

Monday, September 29, 2008

The logic behind the latest Lebanon bombing

Even before the May events, there have been deep worries in Lebanon about the resurgence of Salafi groups especially in the environs of Tripoli. There are four factors that drive the attacks on army connected targets, in my view:
1.Vengeance for the 2007 suppression of Fatah al-Islam in the Nahr al-Barid fighting.
2. Perception that the army is aligned with Hezbollah (army orders have stressed cooperation with the resistance, and the recent policy statement privileged Hezbollah).
3. Judgment that Saad al-Din al-Hariri, with whom Salafi groups had aligned, was shown to be weak. While the Salafis will take his money, they are less inclined to rest their fate in his sometimes shaky hands.
4. Role of external players, which in this case refers to hardline Saudis, who wish to undermine the consensus government in Beirut. That consensus government concedes a major political voice to Hezbollah led opposition.

FT.com / World - Lebanese blast mars electoral law vote

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Nasrallah, a consensus man.

Hasan Nasrallah, referring to next year's parliamentary elections now scheduled for May, pledges to form a consensus government if the opposition wins. In other words, he is merely pledging to do what is normally done in Lebanon. The period from the fall of 2006 to July 2008 was an aberation owing to external pressure, esp. from the U.S. Lebanese governments typically operate by virtue of consensus.
I would not be surprised to see the elections postponed until the end of the summer in order to capitalize on the tourism season.
The parliament is beginning to address the election law for next year.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Salim Amin Nasr R.I.P.

A man of majestic integrity died on Sunday, September 21, 2008. He was a man enormously dedicated to his country and he was moved by a quiet passion for fundamental ideals of fairness and justice. We met nearly 25 years ago. By the late 1980s, Salim conceived and headed the Center for Peace and Reconstruction in Lebanon, a far-sighted effort to bring together leading moderate Lebanese dedicated to reviving civility to Lebanon. I remember the meetings as gatherings of impressive, courageous people intent upon supplanting the war society that then still prevailed in Lebanon.
Later Salim, a gifted sociologist, became a program officer for the Ford Foundation in Cairo. In that capacity he worked very hard to construct a
network of Arab social scientists united by their commitment to political reform and improved governance. He was a passionate supporter of the project that Farhad Kazemi and I headed at NYU, the Civil Society in the Middle East program. The program was designed as an effort to evaluate the vibrancy of associational life in the Middle East, as well as examine the mechanisms and tactics regional states used to impede civil society. This was no two-aspirins-at-bedtime approach to political reform but a clear-headed effort to imagine a better future for the region's societies.
Salim might have stayed on at Ford, the foundation certainly wished him to do so, but he decided to return to Lebanon in mid-1990s, where he worked hard on reform and governance issues at the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, then headed by Paul Salem.
I have special memories of Salim, perhaps none so poignant as a high quality conference in Italy, when this rigorous, serious intellectual was moved to tears recounting an episode during the civil war when his life hung by thread at a checkpoint. Colleagues around the room could not control their own tears. He cared deeply about his work because he knew that he was not engaged in a sterile academic exercise, but work that might truly make a difference.
He loved good music, when he was in Manhattan he would make a quiet excursion to a little cafe in Greenwich Village, La Lanterna di Vittorio. In the Cafe di Vittorio there was usually fine opera being played and he would savor wonderful coffee and something sweet. He loved that place.
I last saw him more than a year ago in Jubayl (Byblos), Lebanon. Salim's wonderful wife Marlene asked me to talk to him, to ask him to slow down. He had been ill for several years, and he was quite frail, but I told her he could not slow down, his work kept him going.
He was so very proud of his son and daughter, Amin and Zeina. I am sure they will honor their father with their loves. They, and their mother, have lost a wonderful man, but Lebanon has lost a extraordinary son.
Those who would like to honor Salim's memory are asked to donate in his name to the Lebanese Red Cross.

[Thanks to EB for helping me remember the incident recounted above.]

Monday, August 18, 2008

Hezbollah and leading Salafi figure sign a MOU

The Daily Star - Politics - Hizbullah, Salfists ink accord banning sectarian strife
The Memorandum of Understanding signed today by al-Sayyid Amin al-Sayyid, who heads Hezbollah's Politboro, and the "Herald" Hasan al-Shahhal, who leads the main Salifist group in Lebanon is important on several counts:

  • It underlines the simmering dangers of a new explosion of Sunni-Shi'i violence, which the MOU is intended to deter.
  • It represents something of a success for Hezbollah, since the MOU will somewhat de-legitimize Sunnis who persist in fomenting anti-Shi'i violence.
  • It reduces, but does not eliminate the opportunity for Lebanese and outside players to fish in trouble waters.

Nonetheless, there are a variety of Sunni Salafist groups that remain deeply hostile to the Shi'a, and they are unlikely to be decisively deterred by the MOU. Certainly, groups that tend to buy the al-Qaeda line are unlikely to be bowled over by this agreement. Last week's bus bombing in Tripoli lends bloody testament to the real dangers that persist.

It is unclear from the press coverage whether Saad al-Hariri enthusiastically embraced this agreement. Early signs suggest that it may have been presented to him as a done deal.

Sunday, August 03, 2008

Curious posting on visitors to Beirut

Lebanese Political Journal: Foreigners in Beirut, Karadzic, and Lebanese politiciansTribunals: "Foreigners are running all over Beirut. I'm not talking about the Khalijee. They are doing just fine sitting in the downtown, in hotels, and making a few appearances in the neighborhoods.

"Western visitors are running all over town. I don't call them tourists, because plenty are not. Some are summer Arabic students, some are backpackers, others are doing internships at the Daily Star, others are foreign freelance journalists, some are tourists (but it is harder to notice them because they do not regularly stop in areas frequented by locals), and some wear high and tight haircuts that bring to mind careers in less pleasant areas of the Middle East.

"They are an interesting addition to the normal Beirut mix, yet reminiscent of the sorts of people I assisted in evacuating the country in 2006. Some claim that foreigners are a good sign. 2006 reveals that such opinions are merely that... opinions.""