Institute for Iraqi Studies at Boston University (IISBU) publishes inaugural occasional paper, The Hawza Under Siege: A Study in the Ba'th Party Archive, by Abbas Kadhim

Making use of Ba'thist intelligence archives Kadhim examines the efforts of Saddam Hussein and his subordinates to influence, control, intimidate and subvert Shi'i religious authorities, especially the leading clerical authorities in al-Najaf. His study is detailed and nuanced, and it may be downloaded for free from the IIS website.

A Kindle version is available as well, and Ibook and Epub versions are in progress.

Graham Fuller on Saudi reaction

Well-argued OPED on Bahrain

Emile Nakhleh, whose 1975 book is a seminal account of Bahraini politics, offers a smart commentary on Bahrain.

"In truth, Bahrain is just one further country in which the spectre of Shia threat has been carefully constructed to maintain US support for a repressive regime. When I was in the intelligence community, we briefed about sources of instability, often citing the systematic discrimination against the Shia. These grievances, now voiced by protesters, have seen the majority excluded from power and denied basic freedoms for decades."
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"Whatever happens, the west must be sceptical of talk about a rising Shia crescent. Iran’s influence has increased since the invasion of Iraq. But few Shia groups in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon have turned to it for guidance. Instead, they focus on domestic grievances. If there is a Shia revival, it is country specific. Iran’s influence in these places is no larger than it ever was."

Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah, died July 4, 2010

A comment to be posted.

Visiting the Hawza

Over the past week I have had the unique opportunity to visit the Hawza of al-Najaf. I will post some of my reflections here in the coming days as well as a few images of al-Najaf, which rightly claims to be most important center of Shi'i Muslim scholarship over the course of history.

[Added: Link to my article on al-Najaf.]

Major development: Campaign to disable the Jaish al-Mahdi in Iraq

Yesterday, Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki indicated that militias had to disarm. His focus is, of course, the militia that is part of the al-Sadr movement or current, the jaish al-mahdi. He seems somehow less preoccupied with the al-Badr brigade militia which is part of SIIC. No doubt, getting rid of all militias is a wonderful idea, but starting with the Sadrists may not be wise.
I remember sitting in Beirut with an old friend about the time of the invasion. He was a shrewd observer (and a Shi'i Muslim), who I had known for decades. He was happy to see Saddam toppled, but he was distressed by how poorly prepared the US was to deal with Iraq. He said, despite the mistakes, this will be ok provided the US does not alienate the Shi'a in Iraq. "If you do that, then it is all over."
Muqtada al-Sadr sits atop a mobilized underclass community that is too unwieldy to encompass in a well-integrated party, and he is not the greatest leader, but he does have unique authority as a sayyid (or descendant of the Prophet), as the son and former aide of Ayatollah M. Sadiq al-Sadr and as part of a distinguished clerical family with branches in Lebanon and Iran, as well as Iraq.
He alone can sit atop the volcano. If he loses control, then Katie bar the door.
When my Iraq Study Group colleagues fantasized about how things might be if Muqtada would disappear, I warned them to watch what they wish for.
For the moment, the ceasefire or freeze that has been in place since August seems to be out the door. Violence will likely increase, as illustrated by the rocketing of the Green Zone (three Americans killed).
There is a good chance that the US will end up seeking Iranian help to end it the fighting with the Sadrists (as al-Maliki had to do in al-Basrah, although he denies it). Or, maybe will decide to strike Iran too! Yeah, that would help.
Our political dilemma is that our Iraqi Shi'i "friends" don't have the popular base that Muqtada does, not are likely to any time soon.

US and Iraqi forces take the battle to Moqtada al-Sadr's doorstep - Times Online

Zbigniew Brzezinski on ending the Iraq war

How to End the War

Of related interest is this town hall discussion, sponsored by the Foreign Policy Association. The site includes a streaming video of the event. The speakers are Frederick Kagan and myself. The chair is Larry Korb.

The fate of the surge

The term "success" needs to be used advisedly in Iraq, but there is little doubt that the positive results of the so-called surge are in significant measure thanks to the ceasefire declared by Muqtada al-Sadr. If that ceasefire comes unstuck, hold on to your hats.

FT.com / World - Battle with militia spreads to Baghdad

Muharram 9 in Manama, Bahrain: the coffin of the infant kllled by an arrow as Hussein begged Yazid's troops for water for the baby

Copyright ARN, 2008

Eighth night of Muharram in Manama

Copyright ARN, 2008

The Ajam Ma'tam in the Manama suq (on Imam Hussein Street)

Don't think this is good news

Underlying the popularity of Muqtada al-Sadr is a phenomenon of mobilization and politicization amongst the Shi'i disinherited classes. While there have always been fractures in the jaysh al-mahdi, Muqtada has been more-or-less in charge of this lower class movement. The fragmentation of the movement augurs for more violence and confusion. For me, the parallel would be the Shi'i community in Beirut from 1984 or so until the late 1980s. American officials who sometimes dreamed of a world without Muqtada never quite understood the cohesive role that he plays.

Shiite militia may be disintegrating - Yahoo! News

Foreign Policy: Who Wins in Iraq? 2. Moqtada al-Sadr

Foreign Policy: Who Wins in Iraq? 2. Moqtada al-Sadr

Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in despair

Telegraph | News | I no longer have power to save Iraq from civil war, warns Shia leader: "'I will not be a political leader any more,' he told aides. 'I am only happy to receive questions about religious matters.'"

As much as any other man in Iraq, it is Muqtada al-Sadr who has mobilized the popular base that has undermined the moderation espoused by Sistani.

In Mideast, Shiites May Be Unlikely U.S. Allies

washingtonpost.com: In Mideast, Shiites May Be Unlikely U.S. Allies: "A quarter-century after its first traumatic confrontation with the Shiite world, when the U.S. Embassy was seized in Iran, the United States is moving on several fronts to support, recognize or hold out the prospect of engagement with Islam's increasingly powerful minority.
The White House is now counting on a Shiite-dominated government to stabilize Iraq. In a tactical shift, the United States is indirectly reaching out to Iran, backing Europe's offer of economic incentives to get Tehran to surrender any nuclear weapons program."

A primer on Arab Shi'i Muslims

This is a piece that I wrote in the 1980s, which has been "resurrected" by the Americans for Middle East Understanding.

AMEU : Summary