Several people asked for a link to my article on al-Najaf, which was published last year

Those of you with JSTOR access should be able to download it here.

Advance Copy--NYT Magazine--"Will Israel Attack Iran?"

Also see:
Pollack: Sliding toward war?
Philip Weiss: Times give platform Iran war advocacy.

Sara Roy: "it is worth putting Hamas to the test."

One factor that prompted Yitzhak Rabin to make a deal with PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat was the looming rise of Hamas in the early 1990s.  That was two decades ago, but Israeli leaders still become apoplectic at the notion of dealing with Hamas.  The prospect of a Palestinian unity government elicits a variety of threats from Israel, including cutting off water and electricity to Gaza, as Sara Roy notes in her incisive op-ed.  Of course, given the coming rise of Islamically-oriented governments in Tunisia and particularly in Egypt, ostracizing Hamas is no longer a relatively easy matter.  Given the Netanyahu government's territorial agenda, and its mockery of the idea of viable and independent Palestinian state, the isolation of Hamas is integral to its policy.  None the less, it is time for U.S. policymakers to re-examine their assumptions about Hamas, and Roy's essay provides some points to ponder.

Compare Roy's piece to the latest advice from Dennis Ross who believes that Israel and the PA should get back on the bike and keep pedaling.  His comment invites images of a stationary tandem exercise bike, not one that might actually cross a finish line.  Among other things, Ross argues that Israel should reduce its activities in area "A", which is to say those parts of the West Bank where the PA is supposed to exercise civil and security authority under the Oslo agreements.  (It is curious that Ross fails to note that President G.W. Bush, for whom he worked, demanded, in 2002, that Israel pull its forces back from area "A", only to be stiff-armed by Ariel Sharon).  Read the Ross piece for a sample of the sort of well-practiced advice that plays right into the hands of Israel's hardline government.  Just keep on pedaling....

Middle East realignment: the Arab upheaval (opening paragraph)

"The year 2011 proved extraordinary in the Arab world.  Assumptions about the weak appetite for freedom in Muslim societies was discredited as three veteran dictators—Tunisia’s Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Libya’s Muammar Qadhafi—were toppled by popular movements. The fate of autocrats in Syria and Yemen hung in the balance. In other states, notably Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, sitting regimes have been shaken but applications of repression and largesse permit the rulers to continue
to reign. In Jordan, Morocco and Oman, skillful political maneuvering has tempered demands for reform. In Iraq and Algeria, the living memory of years of trauma and carnage has dampened the appetite for confrontation and protest."

Full piece, and related chapters by Larry Diamond and Michael O'Hanlon, et. al., may be ordered at the Foreign Policy Association website.

U.S.-Pakistan relations and the drone affair

William deB. Mills offers several noteworthy observations on the U.S.-Pakistan-Iran triangle in light of Iran's downing of the U.S. drone.  He reflects on the declining U.S.-Pakistan reaction, the Pakistani reaction to Iran coup de theatre and the prospects for an Iran-Pakistan alliance based on shared antipathy to U.S. goals, complementary economic interests, and worldviews.

Resurgent Arab Islam need not be unsettling

Resurgent Arab Islam need not be unsettling

By Emile Nakhleh and Augustus R. Norton

[Cross-posted with "Informed Comment: Global Affairs" and Boston Globe's "The Angle", where it was first published December 11, 2011]

In the wake of the youth-directed “Arab Spring,” which rocked the Middle East to its core and felled autocratic governments in several countries, Islamic political parties are poised for an historic resurgence across the region — and that is neither surprising nor necessarily alarming.

Popular mass demonstrations, “Days of Rage,” have been the hallmarks of the season that dislodged dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, and exposed the fragility of fierce but unpopular regimes across the Arab world. Youthful demonstrators in quest of dignity, hungry for jobs, and fed up with corruption formed the vanguards.

But because Arab rulers did not allow serious opposition parties, the best organized opposition groups were often Islamist movements. While they did not launch the Arab Spring, they lent resilience and discipline to the demonstrations. These movements are deeply insinuated in the contours of daily life in Arab societies, and now are emerging as early victors in what Arabs are calling al-sahwa (the awakening).

The successes of Islamic parties inspire consternation and alarm in some US policy circles. Daniel Byman of the Brookings Institution worries that these parties will not embrace democracy. Like former Israeli defense minister Moshe Arens, he suggests that the Arab Spring is likely to become a long Arab Winter as Islamic parties gain power and then thwart hopes for substantial reforms and freedom. But these groups are not the extremists that critics fear, and Islamist political parties deserve the opportunity to deliver on the mandate they’ve been granted at the polls.

Repression in Saudi Arabia documented by AI

Arab Reform Initiative, Recommended: Oman and the"Arab Spring"

Comments here on Egypt

“Sentiments vs. Advice” (Jan. 31, 2011)

On the military’s corporate interests (Feb. 4, 2011)

On the evolution of the Ikhwan (Feb. 4, 2011)

Generals out of the shadows (Feb. 11, 2011)

“Quest for Dignity” with Emile Nakhleh (Mar. 3, 2011)

Current History "Middle East" issue: an excellent collection of articles

December 2011

---

Letter from Damascus: Will Syria Descend into Civil War?
by Sami Moubayed
“Many in the opposition are now saying the regime is stronger than they had imagined.”

The Palestinians’ Receding Dream of Statehood
by Nathan J. Brown
“The drama of international diplomacy has only obscured an ongoing, steady erosion of statehood as a focus of Palestinian aspirations.”

Uprisings Jolt the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry
by Frederic Wehrey
“Saudi and Iranian meddling aggravates a divisive, dangerous form of identity politics in fragile, vulnerable states.”

Islamism After the Arab Spring
by Ashraf El Sherif
“It makes no sense today to divide Arab politics into neatly crafted opposites, the ‘Islamist’ versus the ‘civil democratic’ blocs.”

The Middle East in Flux
by Michael C. Hudson
“The contagion effect created by the regime changes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya suggests a significant degree of imagined community among Arabs everywhere.”

Perspective: Libya’s Revolution: Do Institutions Matter?
by Michele Dunne
Libyans’ path toward democracy looks rocky, to be sure. But at least they have been spared the cynical, instrumental use of democratic institutions that Egyptians and Tunisians for decades endured.

Books: The Muslim World’s Counter-Jihad
by William W. Finan Jr.
A new book finds the sources of Arab unrest not only in fury at corrupt regimes and stagnant economies, but also in a popular culture that scorns Islamist extremism.

Nakhleh and Norton on the Egyptian election

"Both the security forces and senior US officials are apprehensive that this week’s elections will bring the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood to power, and there is little doubt that the Brotherhood is poised to win a plurality of seats this week and in run-offs scheduled for December and January. But rather than trying to dilute the election results through military diktat, the United States should insist that the security forces honor the results and hand over power.
"Misplaced fears about the implications of an Islamist sweep are often heard in Washington, where some media pundits have asked whether the Arab Spring is devolving into an Islamist Winter. But Tunisia’s election provides an instructive model on an alternative to that scenario. The election fostered a coalescence of Islamist and secular politicians. The victory of the Tunisian al-Nahda party, which won a 40-percent plurality, may be a harbinger for the coming of Arab political normalcy and the delegitimization of “Arab exceptionalism.’’ Al-Nahda’s leader, Rachid Ghannouchi, has begun reaching out to secular groups to form a coalition government, a move that would not have happened before the demise of authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya."

[Because of the Thanksgiving holiday, this piece went to press five days ago.]


On November 25, 2011, a White House statement suggested impatience with the Egyptian generals' and emphasized the goal of "the full transfer of power to a civilian government."  Compare this statement to the President's phone conversation with Field Marshal Tantawi on October 24, 2011.

Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry: Implicit repudiation of Bahraini government's narrative

Commission website (in Arabic) and link to the full report in English.

Lenore Martin's reflection on Turkish-Syrian-Iranian relations is a reminder that among the reverberations of the upheaval in Syria may be a realignment on the Kurdish question

While often unnoticed, even in usually informed commentary, there have been periodic indicators of Iranian-Turkish cooperation vis-a-vis Kurdish nationalist insurgents.  As Lenore Martin notes, both Syria and Iran might seek to stoke the Kurdish insurgency against Turkey as a riposte to Ankara's recent hostility to the al-Asad regime.

Rosa Parks would approve

Does the Arab League now have attention of Bashar al-Asad? Equally important, will the elites of Damascus and Aleppo rethink their tacit support for the regime?

"The people want international protection, an air embargo and relief from the murderer."

UNESCO votes 107-14 with 52 abstentions to admit Palestine. US

The admission of Palestine to UNESCO will prompt cuts in US funding of the agency.  These punitive cuts will hurt UNESCO, but they also serve to illustrate how isolated the US has become on the issue. A U.S. official stated that "there are consequences" if the vote approves Palestinian membership in UNESCO, but there are also consequences of the US being in splendid isolation with Israel. 
What remains is for Palestine to sign and ratify the UNESCO constitution.


[Added: To minimize the reality of auto-ostracism by the U.S., expect to see a stream of pieces, such as this one, extolling Israel's value as a friend of the U.S.]

Sensible commentary on the Libyan intervention and the fall of Qadhafi

Professors Haider Ala Hamoudi and Abbas Kadhim named Senior Fellows of the Institute for Iraqi Studies

For the biographical details and publication information, see this link.  http://www.bu.edu/iis/non-resident-fellows-2/

Libyan Victory Lends Momentum to Syrian Rebellion in Idlib: "Congratulations Libya: Soon in Syria"

October 21, 2011

Useful Primer for the Tunisian Election