Useful Primer for the Tunisian Election

North Africa’s Epochal Year of Freedom by ARN and Ashraf el-Sherif

This article runs in the May 2011 "Africa" issue of Current History.



171 sudan on the cusp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Richard S. Williamson
Southern Sudan is set to become an independent nation in July, but potentially violent disputes
with Khartoum remain.
177 ivory coast: Another Asterisk
for Africa’s Democratization . . . . . . . . . . . . . .William B. Milam and Jennifer G. Jones
The resort to military force to dislodge from the presidential palace the loser in last year’s election
can hardly be deemed a triumph for democracy and the rule of law.
184 Africa’s reluctant Fertility transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Richard Cincotta
Childbearing has declined dramatically elsewhere in the world, boosting economic and political
development. Why not south of the Sahara? Eighth in a series on demographic dilemmas.
191 education in Africa—the story isn’t over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rebecca Winthrop
A revolution in attitudes has taken hold in the region as parents, advocates, and political elites call
for universal access to schools. Progress in actual learning, however, remains limited.
196 Kabila’s congo: Hardly “Post-conflict” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Thomas Turner
Although Joseph Kabila, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s president, likely will win reelection
this year, violence and insecurity still rule the country.
PERSPECTI VE
201 north Africa’s
epochal year of Freedom . . . . . . . . . . . . Augustus Richard Norton and Ashraf el-Sherif
Uprisings in North Africa have electrified the world and inaugurated a new era in the region, but
their outcomes are uncertain. The old order could yet prove resilient.
BookS
204 southern Africa Beyond caricature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .William W. Finan Jr.
A new book traces the political development of South Africa and Zimbabwe through the personal
histories of leaders who started as revolutionaries and became presidents.
THE MoNTH I N REVI EW
206 March 2011
An international chronology of events in March, country by country, day by da

Henry Porter's reflections on the striking idealism and values of the new generation protesters in Tunisia and Egypt

His comments are in synch with the piece that Emile Nakhleh and I published a few days ago in the Globe, not least the emphasis on dignity and respect.

"To spend time with the protesters is to understand the scale of the change underway in the Arab world. There is almost a shift of consciousness: people are beginning to think differently about themselves and they are exhilarated by the possibilities of political debate. I lost count of the number of young women and men who spoke about self-respect and dignity and how those two could only be attained with freedom."

Bassma Kodmani reflects on Tunisian and Egyptian "revolutions"

Too many to arrest

Anger and resentment has been seething not for months or years but for several decades across the Middle East.  The particulars from one case to another differ obviously, but the complaints of corruption, petty and profound arrogance, and deafness to the demands for economic opportunity, a place to live, and respect for the dignity of the person are common.  For younger people, the complaints often come down to the fact that a person cannot afford to marry, or live a decent, even marginally fulfilling life.  I have heard these complaints firsthand and often in Egypt, Iran, Bahrain, Jordan, Syria and in the occupied West Bank and Gaza.

To stifle and choke the complaints pantheons of national security agencies and political agents have been at work.  However, when the moment comes, as it now has, when not just 100 or 200 but 10,000 or 100,000 people persist in demonstrating, the economy of scale overwhelms the resources of repression.  There are just too many people to arrest, or to beat or to gas.

In some places, not least Bahrain, the complaints coincide with sectarian differences and disparities in privilege that are extraordinary because they are so readily noticed.  In short, the demonstrations in Bahrain were eminently predictable.  Travel from cosmopolitan capital Manama to the predominantly and very distressed Shi'i city of Sitrah, and the differences are abrupt and stunning. Sitrah, along with many of the Shi'i villages in Bahrain, is a dreadful place to live.  Or stay in your chair and look at unemployment or per capita income data for Bahrain.  The data speaks volumes about the inequity that defines Bahraini society.  President Obama has praised King Hamad for his reforms, and former President Bush extolled the King as a democrat, with the result that both presidents provoked justified ridicule for their blindness. 

In my experience, people in the Middle East have sought models of change for years.  In years passed they watched Algeria with fascination, until the army provoked a civil war; Yemen, until a civil war erupted in 1994; Lebanon, where Hezbollah provided a military model of resistance; and, Turkey, where religiously oriented politicians came to power constitutionally.  However, the Tunisian and Egyptian models are unqiue: they are not examples of top-down reform, or of elite deals, but of people grabbing their own destiny and facing down oppression.  In that sense, what has happened is powerful and, I suspect, long-lasting.  

Regimes, as in Algeria, Syria and Iran, habitually adopt a tough iron fist policy, but the iron fist depends on the people being intimidated and cowed. It is precisely the importance of the Tunisian and Egyptian exemplars that there were observable tipping points, ones beyond which savagery becomes counter-productive and self-destructive in face of large numbers of people who are neither cowed nor any longer intimidated.

It is not difficult to imagine scenarios in which political authority fragments in Yemen under the weight of demonstrations, and it is not a stretch to imagine serious demonstrations in Iraq continuing and growing in scale, just to take two of many examples.

In the coming months, it will be fascinating to watch the ruling elites change their game to pre-empt demands. Their steps will divert money from budgets to underwrite new subsidies for food and fuel, anti-corruption will become the flavor of the year, and efforts will be made to demonstrate that the people on top are listening to the masses.  A lot of this is going to look staged and theatrical and soon become the bunt of jokes and derision, the feedstock for Facebook, instant messaging and other social networks.  The real tests will be whether the kings, emirs and presidents are truly ready to release their grips, to increase accountability and to open up political space.  

In other words, will they embrace structural changes that potentially diminish their power while simultaneously attempting to meet long frustrated and ignored economic demands?  

I expect a rocky ride.

Will Islamist groups take over in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere? U.S. scholars think not.

Egypt's Yaum al-Ghadib: Speaking Truth to Power.

Thanks to J.
 Overview (in Turkish) of the reverberations of Tunisia's revolution in the Arab world.

Read Yasmine al-Rashidi's essay on NYReview of Books blog.  She cites the gutsy rap by Egyptian rapper Rami Donjiwan. The song is "against the government" song, for which the opening lines are:

Against the the government, against the Government.
Against the government, against the thugs and injustice.
Against the ruler and the government, and the long road of injustice.
Against the government and I have a 1,000 proofs.
...............

Closing with:
Against the government and the one who accepts humiliation.

Meanwhile, VP Joe Biden calls on Pres. Mubarak to respond to the legitimate demands for change, and adds that he does think of Mubarak as a dictator.  Let's be serious: The prospect that Mubarak will respond substantively to widespread demands for change is very unlikely.  

Egypt's second 'day of anger (yaum al-ghadib)

It has been thirty-four years since Egyptians by the tens of thousands rushed into the streets demanding that their basic needs be met.  Their appeals for justice and jobs are poignant and demand our support, but we should hope for a gradual process of change, not an instant one.

Egypt and Tunisia share a common feature and that is the depoliticization of public life that has been imposed on a generation of Tunisians and Egyptians.  Viable, institutionalized opposition groups have not been permitted to develop, and public figures have often been emasculated and marginalized.  This means that even when the ruler departs the scene ignominiously, as in the case of Ben 'Ali, there is bound to be a period of confusion if not chaos.  Egypt's venerable Muslim Brethren is sometimes depicted--perhaps with trepidation--as Egypt's government in waiting, but this is unjustified.  The Ikhwan is riven by internal ideological debates and inter-generational tensions.  It recently has spent more energy worrying about the encroachment of Salafism on its membership base than addressing the serious challenges facing Egyptian politicians.

Powerful players, not least the U.S. government, need to be pushing for a deliberate opening of political space.  Hillary Clinton's call today for Egypt to respect the rights of Egyptians to assemble, organize and protest was a step in the right direction.

Thoughtful reflections on Egypt by the LRB's Adam Shatz merit reading.