Syrian refugee numbers understate the immensity of the dislocation that has already occurred

Over 300,000 Syrians are refugees outside of their country, in addition to large numbers in Jordan, Iraq, Turkey and Lebanon, there are sizable numbers of better-off Syrians in the Gulf, esp. in the UAE.  What we are lacking are reliable estimates of internal refugees.  As a benchmark, it should be kept in mind that internally displaced persons and external refugees in Iraq (c. 2006-7) reached one seventh of the population of the total population (approx. 28m. vs. 23 m. in Syria) of Iraq, of whom about sixty percent were internally displaced.  That is a reminder that for every one of the 300,000 Syrians who have probably fled their country, there are probably another 300,000 or so who have sought shelter in Syrian villages and towns.  In other words, when considering the numbers of refugees, one should probably assume that the reported numbers are only a fraction of the human dislocation that has occurred to date.

"Any rally or march...at any public place...shall be deemed a riot..." /s/ Bashar al-Asad, August 29, 2011

From a cache of documents carried to Turkey by defecting intelligence official Abdul Majid Barakat.

Alan Berger's thoughtful piece on Syria

"FRIEDRICH NIETZSCHE called states the “coldest of all cold monsters.’’ Anyone doubting the truth of Nietzsche’s dictum need only contemplate the crimes against humanity perpetrated by the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad and the complicity of his backers in Tehran and Moscow — and then ponder the hesitation of onlooker states to accept what a UN resolution has called their “responsibility to protect’’ civilians from Assad’s tanks, artillery, and snipers."

Berger concludes by with a prescription for a democratic, pluralist states with guarantees for minority community, of course including the 'Alawis.  The dilemma is that the Syria regime has systematically decimated civil society in the Syria with the result that the sinews of a participant political system need to built de novo.  As in Iraq and in Libya, it is not that the people would not wish to live in a freer, even democratic society, but the prospects are problematic, except insofar as political institutions are constructed along sectarian or kinship lines.  The legacy of these rapacious regimes is a deformed political space, and only time, and trial and error may rehabilitate that space.

Two noteworthy essays on Syria with opposite conclusions

Joshua Landis arguing that Bashar al-Asad will ride the tempest and survive, and Peter Harling and Sarah Birke concluding that the regime has maneuvered into a cul de sac while majority of Syrians are thinking beyond the present regime and are unwilling to go back.

Foreign Policy Association's Five Questions

For the original essay.

Resurgent Arab Islam need not be unsettling

Resurgent Arab Islam need not be unsettling

By Emile Nakhleh and Augustus R. Norton

[Cross-posted with "Informed Comment: Global Affairs" and Boston Globe's "The Angle", where it was first published December 11, 2011]

In the wake of the youth-directed “Arab Spring,” which rocked the Middle East to its core and felled autocratic governments in several countries, Islamic political parties are poised for an historic resurgence across the region — and that is neither surprising nor necessarily alarming.

Popular mass demonstrations, “Days of Rage,” have been the hallmarks of the season that dislodged dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, and exposed the fragility of fierce but unpopular regimes across the Arab world. Youthful demonstrators in quest of dignity, hungry for jobs, and fed up with corruption formed the vanguards.

But because Arab rulers did not allow serious opposition parties, the best organized opposition groups were often Islamist movements. While they did not launch the Arab Spring, they lent resilience and discipline to the demonstrations. These movements are deeply insinuated in the contours of daily life in Arab societies, and now are emerging as early victors in what Arabs are calling al-sahwa (the awakening).

The successes of Islamic parties inspire consternation and alarm in some US policy circles. Daniel Byman of the Brookings Institution worries that these parties will not embrace democracy. Like former Israeli defense minister Moshe Arens, he suggests that the Arab Spring is likely to become a long Arab Winter as Islamic parties gain power and then thwart hopes for substantial reforms and freedom. But these groups are not the extremists that critics fear, and Islamist political parties deserve the opportunity to deliver on the mandate they’ve been granted at the polls.

Current History "Middle East" issue: an excellent collection of articles

December 2011

---

Letter from Damascus: Will Syria Descend into Civil War?
by Sami Moubayed
“Many in the opposition are now saying the regime is stronger than they had imagined.”

The Palestinians’ Receding Dream of Statehood
by Nathan J. Brown
“The drama of international diplomacy has only obscured an ongoing, steady erosion of statehood as a focus of Palestinian aspirations.”

Uprisings Jolt the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry
by Frederic Wehrey
“Saudi and Iranian meddling aggravates a divisive, dangerous form of identity politics in fragile, vulnerable states.”

Islamism After the Arab Spring
by Ashraf El Sherif
“It makes no sense today to divide Arab politics into neatly crafted opposites, the ‘Islamist’ versus the ‘civil democratic’ blocs.”

The Middle East in Flux
by Michael C. Hudson
“The contagion effect created by the regime changes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya suggests a significant degree of imagined community among Arabs everywhere.”

Perspective: Libya’s Revolution: Do Institutions Matter?
by Michele Dunne
Libyans’ path toward democracy looks rocky, to be sure. But at least they have been spared the cynical, instrumental use of democratic institutions that Egyptians and Tunisians for decades endured.

Books: The Muslim World’s Counter-Jihad
by William W. Finan Jr.
A new book finds the sources of Arab unrest not only in fury at corrupt regimes and stagnant economies, but also in a popular culture that scorns Islamist extremism.

The Nation on the Arab Spring

Very useful piece on Hatay (Alexandretta), where 11,000 Syrians have taken refuge

Alain Gresh on the Palestine Spring

North Africa’s Epochal Year of Freedom by ARN and Ashraf el-Sherif

This article runs in the May 2011 "Africa" issue of Current History.



171 sudan on the cusp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Richard S. Williamson
Southern Sudan is set to become an independent nation in July, but potentially violent disputes
with Khartoum remain.
177 ivory coast: Another Asterisk
for Africa’s Democratization . . . . . . . . . . . . . .William B. Milam and Jennifer G. Jones
The resort to military force to dislodge from the presidential palace the loser in last year’s election
can hardly be deemed a triumph for democracy and the rule of law.
184 Africa’s reluctant Fertility transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Richard Cincotta
Childbearing has declined dramatically elsewhere in the world, boosting economic and political
development. Why not south of the Sahara? Eighth in a series on demographic dilemmas.
191 education in Africa—the story isn’t over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rebecca Winthrop
A revolution in attitudes has taken hold in the region as parents, advocates, and political elites call
for universal access to schools. Progress in actual learning, however, remains limited.
196 Kabila’s congo: Hardly “Post-conflict” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Thomas Turner
Although Joseph Kabila, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s president, likely will win reelection
this year, violence and insecurity still rule the country.
PERSPECTI VE
201 north Africa’s
epochal year of Freedom . . . . . . . . . . . . Augustus Richard Norton and Ashraf el-Sherif
Uprisings in North Africa have electrified the world and inaugurated a new era in the region, but
their outcomes are uncertain. The old order could yet prove resilient.
BookS
204 southern Africa Beyond caricature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .William W. Finan Jr.
A new book traces the political development of South Africa and Zimbabwe through the personal
histories of leaders who started as revolutionaries and became presidents.
THE MoNTH I N REVI EW
206 March 2011
An international chronology of events in March, country by country, day by da

Upheaval in the Maghrib

The lead article in the forthcoming May 2011 issue of Current History is:

North Africa’s Epochal Year of Freedom by Augustus Richard Norton and Ashraf el-Sherif

From the conclusion:

"This is an astounding year in North Africa, as well as in the wider Arab world. Indeed, whether one reckons by the Western or the Islamic calendar (the year 1432 began on December 7), the current year defines a new epoch in the region. The impact is likely to be every bit as unsettling toWestern powers as it has already been to dictators.   

"The pace of the upheaval, the ideals of the participants,and the breadth of mobilization have been breathtaking and inspiring, but the prospects for change vary significantly from one country to another. Wise, prudent leaders may emerge at year’s end with enhanced popularity, while those who seek to frustrate and stifle change are likely to find that the year never ends."

A link to the complete article will be posted here shortly.

Ashraf el-Sherif is an instructor in Political Science at the American University in Cairo. He earned his Ph.D. in political science at Boston University in 2010.  He is done impressive work on Islamist thought and politics in Morocco and Egypt.

Syria: Ongoing repression on display, including an apparently fabricated "news" clip from the al-Umari Mosque in Dir'aa

Syria has responded to demonstrations and unrest in Dir'aa and surrounding towns with a campaign of arrests targetting some bloggers and demonstrators.  Note the clip of flash arrests by a caravan of state security agents.

"Revolution, Democracy and the Muslim World"--March 23, 2011

Warren Olney "To the Point", listen in or catch the podcast.

More Bahraini Poppycock

King Hamad today attributed the recent demonstrations to "an external plot has been fomented for 20 to 30 years for the ground to be ripe for subversive designs."  His Royal Highness was grateful that plot did not succeed: "Such subversive designs are not however possible, whether in Bahrain or in any other GCC country, thank goodness," he added, according to a report by the Bahrain News Agency. "I here announce the failure of the fomented subversive plot."

Now that the monarch has squashed this plot with a little help for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, perhap he would turn his attention to the attacks last week on Bahrain's respected (and only) opposition paper, al-Wasat.  Perhaps he can uncover who plotted to attack al-Wasat.  The paper continues be be actively undermined by the regime, according to usually informed commenters.

John Caelan's intriguing time-lapse of recent protests

A more simplified, and easier to read time-lapse is offered on Slate.  This one covers the period from December 17, 2010 to March 21, 2011.

In terms of country specific efforts, this one (in Arabic) on Syria caught my eye.  

A glimpse of the Dir'aa (درعا) demonstration on March 19, 2011. Demonstrations continued on March 20th, when the courthouse was reportedly torched

Demonstrations such as this one should cause us to wonder about claims that Syria is immune to the Great Upheaval. At least, we need to interrogate our paradigms and not take them for granted.  Dir'aa is close to the Syria-Jordan border, not too far from the Jordanian city of Irbid.

Henry Porter's reflections on the striking idealism and values of the new generation protesters in Tunisia and Egypt

His comments are in synch with the piece that Emile Nakhleh and I published a few days ago in the Globe, not least the emphasis on dignity and respect.

"To spend time with the protesters is to understand the scale of the change underway in the Arab world. There is almost a shift of consciousness: people are beginning to think differently about themselves and they are exhilarated by the possibilities of political debate. I lost count of the number of young women and men who spoke about self-respect and dignity and how those two could only be attained with freedom."

The Great Upheaval

A longer version of this OPED will be published here in a few days.

"A REVOLUTIONARY spirit has captured the imagination of tens of millions of Arabs, young and old. The appetite for freedom and the commitment to tolerance that dictators claimed as absent from Arab societies turn out not to be missing at all. 

"The Arab world is entering a new historical phase, one in which the contours of political power will be reshaped as governments become more accountable and responsive. Never in the modern history of the Middle East have so many millions demanded the dismantling of their autocratic regimes with such unanimity, perseverance, persistence, and peacefulness."

The peace fallacy fallacy

The loquacious Martin Peretz is intent to show that the Arab upheaval now has nothing to do with Israel's actions or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  Like many of Washington's self-appointed debunkers of "linkage" he persists in denying the obvious.

When demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square chanted, "irhal, irhal, ya 'amil (leave, leave, oh agent)" or depicted Mubarak surrounded by Israeli and U.S. flags, what would Mr. Peretz imagine was the meaning? Certainly, the momentous demonstrations we are witnessing are about casting out dictators, gaining freedom and, especially, recovering dignity that has long been trampled by autocrats.  However, part of the critique of the autocrats rule was precisely that they were intent on preserving their privileges and power rather than serving their people or acting against injustice, whether at home or elsewhere in the Arab world.  Mr. Peretz is only fooling himself if he thinks that that the fate of Gazans, the Israeli colonization of the West Bank, or America's vigilance to protect Israel, even when by doing so it contradicts its own policies, passes unnoticed among the young people who have led the uprisings.

What earned Mubarak the agent label was precisely the perception that he heeled to US and Israeli interests.  As new governments emerge in the Arab world, one likely reality is that the emerging leaders will be far less likely to risk being accused of collaboration with Israel, or even the U.S.  If anything, the popular pressure to achieve a just solution in Palestine will find wider expression.