Current History "Middle East" issue: an excellent collection of articles

December 2011

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Letter from Damascus: Will Syria Descend into Civil War?
by Sami Moubayed
“Many in the opposition are now saying the regime is stronger than they had imagined.”

The Palestinians’ Receding Dream of Statehood
by Nathan J. Brown
“The drama of international diplomacy has only obscured an ongoing, steady erosion of statehood as a focus of Palestinian aspirations.”

Uprisings Jolt the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry
by Frederic Wehrey
“Saudi and Iranian meddling aggravates a divisive, dangerous form of identity politics in fragile, vulnerable states.”

Islamism After the Arab Spring
by Ashraf El Sherif
“It makes no sense today to divide Arab politics into neatly crafted opposites, the ‘Islamist’ versus the ‘civil democratic’ blocs.”

The Middle East in Flux
by Michael C. Hudson
“The contagion effect created by the regime changes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya suggests a significant degree of imagined community among Arabs everywhere.”

Perspective: Libya’s Revolution: Do Institutions Matter?
by Michele Dunne
Libyans’ path toward democracy looks rocky, to be sure. But at least they have been spared the cynical, instrumental use of democratic institutions that Egyptians and Tunisians for decades endured.

Books: The Muslim World’s Counter-Jihad
by William W. Finan Jr.
A new book finds the sources of Arab unrest not only in fury at corrupt regimes and stagnant economies, but also in a popular culture that scorns Islamist extremism.

Civill-Military Relations in the Middle East, ed. by Carsten Jensen

Includes:

"The Study of Civil-Military Relations and Civil-Society in the Middle East and
North Africa" by Augustus Richard Norton and Ali Alfone

Eva Bellin: People Power and the Possibilities of Democratic Transition in the Middle East, April 12

John Caelan's intriguing time-lapse of recent protests

A more simplified, and easier to read time-lapse is offered on Slate.  This one covers the period from December 17, 2010 to March 21, 2011.

In terms of country specific efforts, this one (in Arabic) on Syria caught my eye.  

Change, its been a long time coming and now is a time for rethinking of paradigms

 Challenging conventional wisdom:

1995:

"The pressures for political reform are being felt across the Middle East--which is not to argue that ruling autocrats are contemplating retirement cottages in Provence. Those who rule do not savor conceding power. Nonetheless, sharing power through inclusionary reform is a means of preserving some power. Even in Libya the resident eccentric, Muammar Qaddafi, has been moving along the path of reform. Strategies of inclusion will obviously vary, and reverses are to be expected. The path of reform is strewn with risks for the present leaders and for the opposition, as well as for outside players. Nonetheless, if the perils of reform invite anxiety, the dangers of clinging to the authoritarian status quo are even more unsettling."  ("The Challenge of Inclusion in the Middle East," Current History, Jan. 1995)

1993: 

"The simple ideas that people should have a voice in decisions that affect their lives, that governments should respond to citizens' needs, that people have a right not to be mistreated by their rulers seems to provoke little controversy, except, that is, until we come to the Middle East, and, particularly, the Arab world. There democracy is said to have no resonance at all given the emerging social forces of Islamic populism." ("Inclusion can deflate Islamic Populism," New Perspectives Quarterly, 1993). 

 2002:

"More important, anger is certainly a by-product of the frustration that grips many Muslim societies, where one’s life chances are stymied by rigid political systems and stale economies that resist reform. The United States is often resented for propping up unpopular and corrupt regimes rather than prodding them to change their ways. Despite considerable Washington rhetoric about promoting democracy in the world, American policymakers have preferred assured stability to the promotion of freedom and reform in the Middle East." ("America's Approach to the Middle East, Current History, Jan. 2002). 

Civil society in Arab societies

"The distinction between civil society associations as means and ends is an important one.  The institutions of free government are essential to a free society.  But political and economic freedoms are rights of individual persons, not of a society as a whole. Governments have centralizing and enlarging tendencies that can compromise individual freedoms – hence the role of civil society in mediating between individuals and government institutions. The absence of such spontaneous and individual-based free associations therefore becomes a major hindrance for countries emerging from authoritarian or totalitarian regimes. In effect, if not by conscious design, such associations demand and teach individual responsibility for the maintenance of a larger free society. 

"While it is natural for people searching for dignity, justice, and fairness to try to learn from the examples of other countries that overcame authoritarian rule, have we understood the right lessons from the post-communist transitions in Europe that might apply to Tunisia, Egypt, and elsewhere in the Arab world? Although the countries of Central and Eastern Europe had significant historical, political, social, and psychological differences with one another – with some emerging peacefully as new democracies and others suffering through bloody civil wars, as in the Balkans – they serve as good examples for identifying the necessary ingredients for successfully overcoming the legacy of totalitarianism."

In the "Civil Society in the Middle East Program," which I directed in the 1990s at New York University, we examined the quality of associational life in most Arab states, as well as in Turkey, Iran and Israel.  The program, funded by the Ford Foundation, was launched with a theme issue of the Middle East Journal, which has been widely cited.  A compact summary of the project, edited by program officer Jillian Schwedler (now a professor at Amherst), was published.   Toward Civil Society in the Middle East? includes a rewarding analytical essay by Schwedler.  In addition to the three volumes published in English, the project was also inspired several journal numbers of Iran Nameh in Persian focusing on Iran.  These were edited by program co-Director Professor Farhad Kazemi.  In addition, Professor Kazemi edited volumes in Persian.  The program also inspired debate and discussion in Arabic and Turkish fora.  The Civil Society Program also produced a documentary film, Quest for Change, which is distributed by Icarus Films and available from many university film libraries for rent.

Timely essay

Adam Shatz offers a perceptive yet skeptical account of the "revolution" in Egypt. Despite the exit of Husni Mubarak, the regime is still very much in place in Egypt.  I hope, and I am sure Shatz does as well, that Egyptians realize the freer, more responsive and more empathetic government that they so richly deserve.  Unfortunately, as I noted here two weeks ago, it is hard to imagine a new power arrangement that fails to accommodate the corporate interests of the Egyptian military.  Shatz makes this point as well.

Given that the military is invested in the geopolitical status quo--including peace with Israel and an annual subvention from the U.S. largess--the generals' tolerance for strategic debate will be limited.  That is probably a good thing.  In addition, the willingness of the military brass to tolerate a free and open political debate remains to be tested.  If reformists start to turn over too many rocks, it is easy to imagine senior officers being very intent to protect their privileges and prerogatives.

The regional upheaval has flummoxed Washington.  Shatz provides a pungent appraisal of the inadequacy of the U.S. strategic and conceptual response.  He also skewers Barack Obama for lacking a strategic vision to match the grandeur of his rhetoric.

Valuable interactive map--protests across the region

View Protests across the Middle East in a larger map

Turkish poll examines Middle Eastern attitudes about Turkey as a model

Sampling of relevant Turkish perspectives on Erkan Saka's blog.

[Added February 7, 2011: more on Turkey's perspectives and particularly economic interests.]

Should Israel's nukes be negotiable?: An important article

Israel's nuclear arsenal of at least 80 warheads is seldom discussed in Washington, yet it is the reality of that arsenal that helps to provide a rationale for other regional powers seeks a nuclear weapons capability. When the idea of a Middle East nuclear free zone is mooted, it is typically dismissed by U.S. officials and analysts as implausible given Israel's refusal to comply. This piece suggests that it is possible the Obama administration will be more open to the idea of an arms control regime in the Middle East that will include Israel Frankly, the evidence is little more than suggestive, although some officials are known to favor the idea.

As I have noted here previously, some experts known for their concern of the Middle East nuclearization are remarkably quiet about Israel's arsenal. Perhaps, just perhaps, that might change.

One intriguing items in the Washington Times article is a reference to a highly secret 1969 agreement between Golda Meir and Richard Nixon, in which Nixon committed the U.S. to preserving Israel's nuclear weapons program.
EXCLUSIVE: Secret U.S.-Israel nuclear accord in jeopardy - Washington Times

A link to the famous 1986 London Times article in which Mordechai Vanunu revealed, for the first time, evidence confirming Israel's nuclear bombs. [Informed reporting on the kidnapping of Vanunu.]

Unsolicited Middle East advice for the new president

A number of scholars of the Middle East came together last September to pay tribute to a departed friend, Louis J. Cantori. A collection of short papers were presented in Lou's honor at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, which met in Washington in early September. What follows is the introduction to the papers, which now comprise an article in Winter 2008 issue of Middle East Policy. The complete article is available here. The contributors include Bahman Baktiari, Eva Bellin, Eric Davis, Michael Hudson, and Kristin Smith Diwan.

A quarter century ago, about the time that the Middle East Policy Council was created, little serious attention was paid to the Middle East at the annual meetings of the leading disciplinary associations, including the American Political Science Association (APSA). Professor Louis J. Cantori and a small group of colleagues, including this writer, decided in 1983 to create the Conference Group the Middle East (CGME), which convened for the first time in 1984. Just a few months ago, the group convened for the twenty-fourth time in conjunction with the national meeting of APSA in Boston. From the start, it was Lou who cheerfully assumed the leadership of the group, as well as the administrative burden of organizing the annual meeting.

Over the years, the CGME provided a forum for several dozen younger scholars the Middle East, who, thanks to the support of the Ford Foundation, often gained the opportunity to participate in their first U.S. meeting. The CGME focused on myriad themes, including U.S. foreign policy in the region, Islam and politics, the domestic determinants of foreign policy in Middle Eastern states, women and politics, and the prospects for political reform.

Several of the annual meetings inspired collections of articles in this journal and several other respected periodicals. This year, the CGME invited participants to offer advice to the next president and the resulting pieces follow.

Sadly, Lou Cantori was not in the room when the group convened. With his customary humor and courage, Lou confronted a degenerative disease that took far longer to complete its grim course than the best doctors predicted. Lou finally succumbed on May 12, 2008, after a rich academic career that included studies at al-Azhar University in Cairo and professorships at UCLA and the University of Maryland-Baltimore County.

Lou had been a Marine, and, while he was often deeply critical of U.S. security policies, he loved the customs and traditions of the military. He served for a year in the 1980s on the West Point faculty as a visiting professor. Then, as though he had won a soldier-scholar trifecta, he went on to visiting appointments at the Air Force Academy and the USMC Command and Staff College at Quantico, where he savored the idea of Sergeant Cantori lecturing to large audiences of bright field-grade officers from the Corps.

Lou was a generous man in every respect. All who knew him will always remember his compassion and his endearing, hearty laugh. Anyone who had been around the field of Middle East studies knew that laugh, which came from some special place deep inside him; it was his fingerprint. We know that Lou would have appreciated the articles that follow, and they are dedicated to his memory. It is fitting that they appear in Middle East Policy, since he was an enthusiastic supporter of the Council.

Only one shoe dropped...

The appointment of Senator George J. Mitchell as Middle East envoy has generally won accolades.  This apparently leaves Iran to Dennis Ross, although there still seems to be a lot of puzzling over the parameters of his responsibilities.  Ross has been the beneficiary of some well-placed and adulatory pieces in the press, and there has been no lack of effort to put him in place.  As I noted earlier, there is some resemblance to the campaign on behalf of John Bolton in 2001.

This piece from the JTA on January 20th has some interesting remarks on mid-level Middle East-oriented positions.

Then there is this piece by Roger Cohen who wants to see some new and competent faces.

BJ

Friends and fans of BJ Fernea are all sad to know that she is gravely ill, and that the end may be near. Her family is at her side. BJ's Guest of the Sheik is a beloved classic, and thousands of students have watched her wonderful films.
Elizabeth W. Fernea - SourceWatch
Updated:
A 2007 tribute to the Ferneas by an Austin fan.

New Media in the Middle East

This is a book-length "working paper" published by the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Southern Denmark (in Odense).  The contributors include Jon Anderson, Lars E. Anderson, Khalil Rinnawi among other scholars.  Jakob Feldt and Peter Seeberg are the editors.

The melange of informal and formal associations that may provide a buffer between citizen and the raw power of the state were decimated in Iraq.

One of the reasons the quest to create a democracy in Iraq has proven so difficult is that civil society there has been largely absent. Amidst a sea of bad news it is good to know that islands of associability are emerging.
Iraqi Charities Plant Seed of Civil Society - New York Times: "Since 2003 the government has registered 5,000 private organizations, including charities, human rights groups, medical assistance agencies and literacy projects. Officials estimate that an additional 7,000 groups are working unofficially. The efforts show that even as violence and sectarian hatred tear Iraq's mixed cities apart, a growing number of Iraqis are trying to bring them together. 'Iraqis were thirsty for such experiences,' said Khadija Tuma, director of the office in the Ministry of Civil Society Affairs that now works with the private aid groups. 'It was as if they already had it inside themselves.'
The new charity groups offer bits of relief in the sea of poverty that swept Iraq during the economic embargo of the 1990's and has worsened with the pervasive lawlessness that followed the American invasion.
The burst of public-spiritedness comes after long decades of muzzled community life under Saddam Hussein, when drab Soviet-style committees for youth, women and industrialists were the only community groups permitted. "

For more on civil society in the Middle East

Read it in the NYT in 2006 or from cutting edge scholars in 1996 and earlier

Good for Thomas Friedman, he reached the same conclusions that the Civil Society in the Middle East program reached in the mid-1990s. Of course, he exaggerates the poverty of associational life in several Arab countries, but the regimes' penchant for the weakening secular oppositionis certainly accurate. The result is that public space is de-politicized leaving a vacuum in which Islamists political forces have been able to move without too many obstructions.

Addicted to Oil - New York Times:

"Why? Because once you sweep away the dictator or king at the top of any Middle East state, you go into free fall until you hit the mosque--as the U.S.discovered in Iraq. There is nothing between the ruling palace and the mosque. The secular autocratic regimes, like those in Egypt, Libya, Syria and Iraq, never allowed anything to grow under their feet. They never allowed the emergence of any truly independent judiciary, media, progressive secular parties or civil society groups--from women's organizations to trade associations. The mosque became an alternative power center because it was the only place the government's iron fist could not fully penetrate. As such, it became a placewhere people were able to associate freely, incubate local leaders and generate a shared opposition ideology."