Tuesday, June 16, 2009

IR Ministry of Interior--official results (in Persian)

پورتال وزارت کشور - - نتايج آراء استان به استان و شهر به شهر دهمين دوره انتخابات رياست جمهوري
The figures for the major cities have been extracted by Alireza Doostdar and the link is here.

It is not implausible that Ahmadinejad would have won the election. What remains puzzling is the uneseemly haste in declaring the result.

Even if the incumbent actually won the elections, the street demonstrations in Iran may generate a momentum all their own. The men and women who toppled the Shah would know all about the cycle of demonstration-repression-demonstration-repression that became an unstoppable force in the Shah's Iran. Once that cycle gathered force, the Shah was unwilling to impose the bloodshed and repression that may have halted it. The Islamic Republic may evince less reticence to use force against its citizens, but the cost of doing so is high in terms of regime legitimacy. Putting down the demonstrations is made all the more difficult when regime elites are split, as they seem to be.

Added: An apparently credible poll showing Ahmadinejad well ahead in the weeks preceding the vote.

No comments: