Urban Backlash against Democracy: Battling the Tyranny of the Majority or the Rise of Rural Power?

Robert Bianchi, author of the still rewarding and remarkably topical Unruly Corporatism (OUP, 1989), offers an analysis that is incisive and persuasive.  Through an examination of the election results in 2011 and 2012, he demonstrates that Mohammed Mursi and the Ikhwan's Freedom and Justice Party enjoyed a deep level of support among its sizable but comparatively disadvantaged constituency.  The electoral results correspond to the deep divisions between the Egyptian geographic and economic peripheries and the relatively affluent urban and provincial middle and working classes, not to mention privileged elites who benefited significantly from the pre-revolutionary status quo and strongly supported General Ahmed Shafiq's campaign for the presidency.  The upshot of Bianchi paper is that notwithstanding the propaganda of the al-Sisi regime, one easily surmises that Egypt remains a deeply cleaved society and that the base constituencies of the Ikhwan remain.

How long will the honeymoon last in Egypt? Will the security apparatus be able to thwart a divorce?

"Sisi’s gamble requires that he figure out a workable formula for ruling Egypt without the participation of Egyptians, at a historical juncture when Egyptians have become much harder to rule."  "Baheyya"

Using telepathic voting nearly 24 million Egyptians elect coup-leader Field Marshal al-Sisi in a landslide.

Although credible observers put turnout in this week's election at well less than 15%, Egyptian officials claim that 46% of eligible voters turned out to vote.  Some newspapers, such as al-Akhbar report even higher figures.  Skeptical observers such as the Guardian's David Hearst clearly failed to take into account innovative telepathic voting, which frees voters from the burden of standing in annoying queues.  The technique was so successful that there no annoying queues.

In contrast to Pew polling, which indicated that 54% of Egyptians held positive views of the al-Sisi, 96.9% of Egyptian voters actually cast votes for Field Marshal Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.  So much for the accuracy of polls.  Then again, could it be that only the pro al-Sisi voters showed up to vote? 

In December I wrote the following in Current History: 

After decades of enjoying unchecked political prerogatives, not to mention opportunities for corruption, the denizens of the state who view democracy as an affront to their privileges have taken nearly every possible to ensure the failure of the democratic, and to discredit the very idea of democracy.

The May 2014 presidential election illustrates the point.  A more recent essay by Tareq Ali is apposite.  [Added: Timely analyses at Middle East Eye; and see this edifying NYTimes piece by David Kirkpatrick.]

[It is announced that al-Sisi received 24 million votes.]

"Where are the "votes"?"

Cartoon by Andeel.

Useful Primer for the Tunisian Election

Yasmine al-Rashidi on Egypt's referendum vote

Informative NPR segment on political parties beginning to organize in Egypt

For much more background on the Center Party--one of the party's discussed on the NPR piece--see my earlier post and download (for free) my essay on the party.

[Related WSJ piece.]

"God is greater" protests continue in Tehran (video)

"Allahuakbar" protests continue in Tehran.  

Patterns of detainee abuse in Iran

Torture admitted by General Ismail Ahmadi Moghaddam, but attributes prisoners' deaths to a "viral illness."

Cracks in the façade?

Roger Cohen’s eloquent essay in the New York Review of Books is must reading. He portrays a budding and resolute social movement that reaches across socio-economic categories, at least in Tehran, but probably elsewhere as well.

As others have noted, and I have stated here weeks ago, the big loser in Iran is Khamenei, whose reputation seems to have been badly and perhaps permanently tarnished. His threats--"It is examination day," he said. "But anyone who flunks the exam cannot retake it the next year. Failing in this exam is not flunking, it is collapse"-- seem to have only limited effect. Some of the best U.S. reporting on Iran has been by Borzou Daraghi and his colleagues at the LATimes. They have reported that the Leader has become fair game for reformists’ barbs. The following passages are from their July 23 article:

At a meeting with families of political prisoners Tuesday night, Abdullah Nouri, a former interior minister, compared Khamenei to Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who was overthrown in the revolution that established the Islamic Republic 30 years ago.

"In the 1970s, nobody imagined that limited struggles would drive the shah out of the country," he said, according to a reformist website.

Meanwhile, two high-ranking reformist clerics declared support for the protest movement and openly challenged Khamenei's leadership. They also gave tacit permission for government officials and clerics to boycott Ahmadinejad's inauguration.

"The supreme leader's confirmation of a president born out of a rigged election could not grant him any legitimacy," Grand Ayatollah Asadollah Bayat Zanjani said in a religious edict. "Both the supreme leader's confirmation and the president's swearing-in are acceptable if and only if the president is elected in a clean vote."

Ayatollah Mohammad-Ali Dastgheib Shirazi called on other top clerics to support those protesting the election results.

"Using firearms and crude weapons against people and incarceration of the revolutionaries will never help safeguard Islam and the establishment," he said, according to several websites.

The resolve of the status quo forces may be cracking a bit. Evin prison officials announced the release of 140 prisoners captured during or after the demonstrations. The BBC reports 200 more remain in custody, and other sources claim the number has been as high as 500. The Iran Labor News Agency reports that those released had been arrested for lighter offences. Meanwhile the government has acknowledged that 30, not 20 as previously claimed, demonstrators were killed. Reformists claim the real number is about 100. Accounts from a variety of sources reveal significant differences in the conservative camp over how to respond. I am not aware of any evidence, however, that the leadership of the Pasdaran has fractured. Certainly, the commander M. Ali Ja’fari has talked a tough game.

Meanwhile, Mir-Hossein Musavi seems to have grown into being a real leader. Musavi, along with fellow candidate Kharoubi, applied for a permit to hold mourning ceremony on July 29, 2009 for the victims of government force, but the Interior Ministry refused to issue a permit. Now Musavi is calling for his followers to go into the street next week, when Iranians celebrate the birthday of the missing Imam. The Twelfth Imam, who many Shi’i Muslims believe will emerge from occultation to rein on Earth during an age of peace and justice, a time just preceding the Day of Judgment, is awaited by Shi’i Muslims. I suspect that few of the reformists share the fervent belief of President Ahmadinejad in the Mahdi, but the commemoration of the Imam’s birthday will provide an excellent occasion for multitudes to fill the streets. Ahmadinejad is a fervent believer in the Mahdi, who he believes already, plays an active role in steering Iran’s destiny. He believes that the return of the Mahdi is imminent, and he has spoken publicly of the importance of hastening the return of the Mahdi, most famously when he spoke before the General Assembly in September 2006.

Ahmadinejad is to be installed for his second term in office on August 5, 2009. Many of the reform-oriented heavy-weights will not be there, including Hashemi Rafsanjani, who reportedly plans on being in Kerman. Even the conservative former Speaker of the Majlis Nateq Nouri, who opposed Khatami for President in 1997, may be absent.

Full text of former President M. Khatami's call for a referendum to restore the people's trust

No doubt, Khatami's promotion of a national referendum will be rejected by the denizens of the regime, but in raising the idea Khatami keeps the pressure on Khameinei to justify himself in order to stop the erosion of his legitimacy. Arguably, it is Khameinei who has been the big loser in the crisis.

Report of comments made by Khatami when visiting the families of people arrested following the June 12th elections.

"He maintained that the people's trust has been seriously damaged and that millions of Iranians have lost trust and added that the only way according to the constitution out of this crisis is holding a referendum in order to find out the people's opinion and repair the people's trust towards the system."


Translation by the OpenSource Center:

"Seyyed Mohammed Khatami and the members of the Militant Clerics Association held various meetings with the families of social and political activists detained in the days following the election. What makes these meetings different from similar meetings held previously is that whilst these meetings were held a number of political activists in prison contacted their family members for the first time. In fact even before the meetings were confirmed Mohsen Aminzadeh, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh and Mohsen Safa'i-Farahani one after the other contacted their wives and very briefly managed to hear the voices of their loved ones. Towards the end of one of the meetings, Javad Emam also rang his family and managed to speak to Seyyed Mohammad Khatami who happened to be there. The meeting finished following the speeches made by members of the families of political activists who were detained.

"Those present at the meeting criticised the way their loved ones were detained: mainly during the night in an illegal way by the use of force and threats and against moral, religious and legal ethics and morals. They criticised the officials in the judiciary and security organisations who have avoided taking any responsibility for the detainees. The family members expressed concern over the fact that no one knows where the detainees are held and under what physical and mental conditions. They criticised the fact that officials in the Judiciary and security organisations have failed to adhere to the basic human and legal rights of the detainees and their families and unfortunately at times they have been disrespectful towards the families of the detainees who based on their legal right wanted to find out where their loved ones are being held.

"Families of the political activists detained maintained that what they have witnessed does not befit the name of the Islamic Republic. Whilst expressing concerns over the condition of the detainees of the recent events their families insisted on the importance of a swift resolution to the problems of the detainees. They further maintained that all organisations, scholars, figures and sources must, based on their good, will enter this debate. They also confirmed that their first demand is the protection of people's vote in the recent election and that they are prepared to tolerate this situation in order to achieve this significant objective.

"In this meeting Khatami praised the recent remarks of Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani at [this week's] Tehran's Friday prayers and mentioned that these remarks were out of sympathy and goodwill and that acting upon these demands is the minimum step which needs taking in order to find a resolution to the current crisis. He maintained that the people's trust has been seriously damaged and that millions of Iranians have lost trust and added that the only way according to the constitution out of this crisis is holding a referendum in order to find out the people's opinion and repair the people's trust towards the system.

"Seyyed Mohammad Khatami then praised the presence of the families of the political activists in a gathering of the Militant Clerics Association. Whilst expressing his sympathy towards the honourable families of the political activists, Iran's former president stated: "You and your loved ones who are now detained are paying the price of your love towards the revolution and the system and your concerns over deviation in the system."

"He maintained that he feels sorry to see that justice and morality are breached. Seyyed Mohammad Khatami then praised the logical and positive remarks of Tehran's Friday prayer leader Mr Hashemi-Rafsanjani and maintained that the recommendations of Mr Hashemi are the minimum demands that can moderate the public atmosphere and prepare the grounds for a return of the trust lost by the people towards the system: "I declare frankly that relying on the people's vote and holding a legal referendum is the only way for the system out of the current crisis. This referendum must be held by impartial organisations such as the Expediency Council so the people can be asked whether they are happy and content about what has happened. If the majority of people accept the current circumstances we will give in."

""Illegal and irreligious issues occurred during the recent detentions and whilst the detainees were held have not only damaged the republicanism of the system but have also questioned the Islamism of the system. Islamism of the system was meant to be used in order to make up for the deficiencies in democracy. One of the manifestations of the Islamism of the system is when justice and morality rules society's general atmosphere. Unfortunately following the actions of the ruling organisations both these pillars have been pulled into question questioned. With regret I have to say although it is a catastrophe that the blood of lots of our fellow citizens was shed during the recent events and the children of this country were detained on mass, questioning republicanism and Islamism is a more significant catastrophe. Suggestions made by Hashemi out of his goodwill during the Friday prayers must be the basis of our action. We must return general trust to the public. All of our demands from the start were finding ways to return trust to the public and to the society. Our remarks however were not being paid attention to. I frankly declare that the only way out of the current crisis is by relying on the people's votes and holding a legal referendum."

"Seyyed Mohammad Khatami at the end congratulated Id of Mab'ath [when Mohammad became a prophet] and maintained that these celebrations are good occasions for freedom of dear prisoners who are held in detention.

"In this meeting prominent figures of the Militant Clerics Association including Messrs Musavi Khoe'iniha, Emami Jamarani, Seyyed Mohammad Razavi, Majid Ansari, Musavi Bojnurdi, Mohammad Moqqadam, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipur,... were also present."

First person account of Friday prayers, Tehran, July 17, 2009.

Thoughtful commentary on the Rafsanjani sermon

Hashemi's Friday sermon leads to accusation that he supports opposition

Hashemi Rafsanjani's July 17, 2009, Friday sermon was notable for a variety of reasons including his explicit criticism of the Guardianship Council, his emphasis on the doubts about the election that were widespread in Iran, his mention of the alienation of senior 'ulama (Sources of Emulation), his view that restrictions on the press be lifted, and his call for the release of people imprisoned during the recent demonstrations. He calls for open dialogue, and does so in the explicit context of preserving the Revolution.

Some commentators have noted that Hashemi is a denizen of the system, and that is true; however, his carefully parsed speech is apparently being viewed by supporters of Ahmadinejad as proof that Hashemi is with the opposition. Indeed, he is accused of playing a major role in fomenting the crisis. For instance, see the following item (translated by the OpenSource Center) from the Fars news agency.

The OpenSource Center translated the item.

"Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi has accused Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani of supporting the post-election "riots."

"Mohammad Yazdi, who is a member of the Guardian Council, referred to the statements of Hashemi-Rafsanjani at 17-July Friday prayer sermon and asked: "Why did Mr Hashemi-Rafsanjani remain silent for a long time after the election? Is the silence not a kind of support for opposition groups and endorsement of the recent riots?"

"Yazdi also criticized Rafsanjani saying that he should not have called for the release of those arrested during post-election unrest. The former judiciary chief said: "If you ask me what should be done for those arrested, I will tell you that they should be punished, because there are laws in the country."

"The cleric condemned Rafsanjani for sending a letter to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene'i before the election. He said that Rafsanjani "has sown the seeds of doubts" in the society by sending that letter.

"He also questioned Rafsanjani's reasoning on people's role in the Islamic Republic system and said: "In an Islamic state, legitimacy is different from popularity and people's support does not bring legitimacy to the state." Ayatollah Yazdi added: "In Islam, the legitimacy of the state comes from God." "

Text of Hashemi-Rafsanjani's Friday sermon, July 17, 2009

This is the most complete version as posted on "Babylon and Beyond" that I have found. If anyone finds a complete translation, pls. let me know. This version has been lifted from the BBC Monitoring Service, and is more complete than the version available from the U.S. OpenSource Center.

Khamenei's loss of stature

"The green movement was intent on piling pressure on supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic establishment," Gen. Yadollah Javani, a hard-line commander of the Revolutionary Guard, said this month. "The sedition's eye was injured but it was not blinded. Now we have to blind it totally before gouging it out."

How important is the recent Montazeri fatwa?

Juan Cole argues that the fatwa's importance has been exaggerated, and that the conclusions of the fatwa are self-evident, namely that if Ahmadinejad stole the election it would be illegitimate for him to occupy the office. This is a very narrow, even strange reading of the fatwa, which clearly, if implicitly, refers to the illegitimate behavior of the rulers, not simply the president. Juan is certainly correct to note the regime has marginalized Montazeri in terms of his access to public space and open discourse in Iran; however, despite the regime's concerted efforts to marginalize Montazeri he retains many middle class followers who consider him to be the most qualified interpreter of religious law. It is instructive to recall that Ali Sistani was marginalized in Saddam Hussein's Iraq, but he retained a wide swath of muqallids or imitators, as the American occupation authorities discovered to their surprise.

I agree that it will take more than a few fatwas from a highly respected mujtahid to move political mountains in Iran, but Montazeri's comments certainly undermine the legitimacy of the President as well as the Leader.

Ayatollah Montazeri's fatwa: it is the religious duty of the people, and especially people of social influence, e.g., clerics, to remove unjust rulers

Ayatollah Mohsen Kadivar, formerly a student of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, asks a series of questions to which the 87-year old cleric responds in unequivocal terms. The gist of his fatwa, made public on July 10, 2009, is that those rulers who breach their contract with the people must be removed from office. He does not refer to Leader Ali Khamenei, but there is no mistaking the target for his finding, which is translated by Tehran Bureau. The fatwa was first noted on Anonymous Iran and first reported by the NYT.

In this earlier post, from June 2009, I discuss the influence of Montazeri and his blunt critique of the flawed June 12 election. Montazeri's is arguably the most respected Shi'i cleric in Iran. In my experience, he retains a broad following among the educated middle class in Iran, despite the attempt of the state to stifle his influence and isolate him.

Montazeri's website, which includes sections in English and Arabic. [at 0400 GMT July 13, the website was down.]

Also noteworthy:
On July 17th, according to PressTV, Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani will lead the Friday prayer at Tehran University. This is the first time he has done this in two months. Prior to the election, he wrote a letter to Khamenei warning that of dangers of election-rigging.

Le Monde Diplomatique on "Iran's stolen election"

Iranian cleric Mohsen Kadivar has paid his dues (18 mos in Evin prison). In my encounters with him I have found him gentle, bright and principled

SPIEGEL ONLINE - Druckversion - Iranian Regime Critic Mohsen Kadivar: 'This Iranian Form of Theocracy Has Failed' - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Added: Link to Kadivar's 2005 article on freedom of thought and religion, which is part a collection of articles addressing the theme of toleration and pluralism.

The Yeltsin Moment in Iran? Mousavi Details Alleged Election Fraud

Facing angry calls that he be tried for treason, Mir Hossein Mousavi has released a document detailing how, in his view, the June 12th election was stolen. Wapo reports that the document was posted on his web site, which was reported to have been shut down by the government on June 28.
I found the report on Facebook, not on his webpage, which I could not raise. The 26pp. report (not 24pp. as reported in WaPo), in Persian, may be downloaded here. Some election documents related to the charged are here.

I found very helpful links from "Binglybinglybip" here on Twitter.

Mousavi Details Alleged Election Fraud in Iran - washingtonpost.com

Protests continuing on a relatively small scale: