Leaked conversation between then soon-to-be-president al-Sisi and high ranking collaborators about shaking down the Gulf Shaykhs and stashing billions in the Army banks accounts

Borzou Daragahi offers an excellent report on the leaked tapes.

The plotters' ridicule of and obvious disdain for the Gulf "half-states" will not play well in Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Leaked conversations in Arabic (with subtitles)

Can Iraq be Saved? Streaming audio and report now available.

The lecture by Dr. Joseph R. Núñez, sponsored by the Boston University Institute for Iraqi Studies (@IISBU) is now available in streaming audio.  The rapporteur's report by Alec Lynde may also be downloaded in PDF.

The IISBU website also contains reports and streaming audio and video from the workshop series on refugees.  Or check the Facebook page or Google+ page.

Can Iraq Be Saved?

Retired Colonel Joseph Núñez spent five years in Iraq. What makes him relatively unique is that much of his time was spent in Iraq's provinces, so he has been, so to speak, in the weeds. His talk is sponsored by the Institute for Iraqi Studies (@IISBU) at the Pardee School, 121 Bay State Road, First Floor, on November 19th at 4 p.M. I have known the speaker for a long time, beginning with three years as colleagues on the West Point faculty. This shoud be a fascinating talk.

Ahmed Seif, a man of courage and principle, 1951-2014 (R.I.P.)

When I was privileged to meet with Ahmed Seif I was impressed by his energy, his integrity and his selfless commitment to the cause of human rights in Egypt.  His voice is needed as much now as ever as a new dictator repudiates the notion of shared human rights in Egypt.  

"The Massacre One Year Later"

Ahmad Shokar's essay deserves to be read.  It very much relates to my earlier post on the repressive Egyptian regime.

Shokar observes:

The vigorous attempts by state officials, along with media and public figures, to justify the killings are signs that Raba‘a is an enduring trauma whose memory will not be easily expunged. Raba‘a is in fact the pivotal event of Egyptian politics after the coup. Even though, as Mosaab al-Shamy (one of the foremost photographers of the massacre) observed, the state works hard to scrub the public sphere clean of commemorative icons, Raba‘a is far from invisible. As competing narratives are made to serve rival political agendas, the very persistence of contestation over the facts suggests that the massacre will not die along with its victims.

CGME at the APSA annual meeting in Washington, August 30th

The CGME is a quarter century old and meets annually with the APSA.

Conference Group on the Middle East Clawing Back Power:  Arab Regimes at a Time of Mobilized Publics
Date:	Saturday, Aug 30, 2014, 11:30 AM-1:00 PM
Location:	Shoreham Hotel, Omni Diplomat Ballroom
Chair(s):	Augustus Richard Norton Boston University
Author(s):	The Resiliency of Egypt#s %Deep State%: Are there any Challengers Left?  Denis J. Sullivan Northeastern University Failure is Forbidden: The Road to the Taif Agreement  Eric Bordenkircher UCLA An Ally or A Foe: The Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab Gulf States   Birol Baskan Georgetown University Open Fire on Protesters? A Turning Point in the Tunisian Transition  Landry Signé University of Alaska, Anchorage Beyond the ‘democratization and authoritarianism paradogma’ - towards a #genuine science of (Middle East) POLITICS’  Morten Valbjorn Aarhus University

Insights into the Repressive Character of the Government in Egypt

The response of the Egyptian government to the investigative report "All According to Plan" [حسب الخطة  Arabic link] by Human Rights Watch is extremely revealing and provides insights into the mentality of the al-Sisi regime.  In short, as reported by the flagship al-Ahram, HRW is biased, serves U.S. interests, is in cahoots with the Muslim Brotherhood and had no authority to conduct research in Egypt.  There is a deep-seated suspicion of foreign NGOs in Egypt. I have witnessed it numerous times over the past 35 years.

The latest episode, of course, serves a double purpose, viz., it stifles open discussion of the report and its serious accusations that Field Marshal al-Sisi sits at the helm of a repressive security apparatus that very likely committed crimes against humanity by conducting deliberate mass killings of demonstrators in 2013 following the toppling of Muhammad Mursi as President; and, it serves to warn indigenous rights oriented groups that--unlike HRW officials--they cannot escape reprisal arrests, torture and jail.  You can be sure that while many educated Egyptians with social media access are well aware of the HRW report, but would also confirm that the message to tread very carefully is indelibly received.

The government reaction is addressed by Egyptian Chronicles.

Even in comparison with the worst years of the Mubarak era, this is a very dark chapter in Egypt's modern history.

For official statements in Arabic.

Urban Backlash against Democracy: Battling the Tyranny of the Majority or the Rise of Rural Power?

Robert Bianchi, author of the still rewarding and remarkably topical Unruly Corporatism (OUP, 1989), offers an analysis that is incisive and persuasive.  Through an examination of the election results in 2011 and 2012, he demonstrates that Mohammed Mursi and the Ikhwan's Freedom and Justice Party enjoyed a deep level of support among its sizable but comparatively disadvantaged constituency.  The electoral results correspond to the deep divisions between the Egyptian geographic and economic peripheries and the relatively affluent urban and provincial middle and working classes, not to mention privileged elites who benefited significantly from the pre-revolutionary status quo and strongly supported General Ahmed Shafiq's campaign for the presidency.  The upshot of Bianchi paper is that notwithstanding the propaganda of the al-Sisi regime, one easily surmises that Egypt remains a deeply cleaved society and that the base constituencies of the Ikhwan remain.

'Ammar al-Zu'bi in al-Jazeera (Arabic)

How long will the honeymoon last in Egypt? Will the security apparatus be able to thwart a divorce?

"Sisi’s gamble requires that he figure out a workable formula for ruling Egypt without the participation of Egyptians, at a historical juncture when Egyptians have become much harder to rule."  "Baheyya"

Does the field marshal have a sense of humor?

Oum Cartoon offers thoughtful commentary on Egypt through the eyes of local cartoonists.  The site deserves your time.

Apartheid Israel Feeling the Chill from Washington

U.S. decision to deal with the PA government raises hackles in Israel.  Good.

The notion that Israel-coddling produces diplomatic flexibility has been disproved repeatedly, not least by former diplomat and diplomatic strike-out king Dennis Ross (and here).  Ross bent over backwards in a recent NYT Op-Ed to find ways that Israel might do just a teeny bit of withdrawals from the West Bank to eliminate the threat that the PA would seek redress for Israel's illegal colonization of the West Bank with the International Criminal Court.

Here are two worthy contributions, both antidotes to coddle school:  The first by Alain Gresh, is aptly titled "What's mine is mine; what's yours is negotiable."  The second is by Emile Nakhleh, who argues that the two-state option is dead.

[Added: This joint statement in April 2014 by five respected and wise men and woman remains relevant, notwithstanding the failure of John Kerry's effort to broker an Israel-Palestine deal.]

[Added: Israel flaunts international opprobrium and announces 1,460 more housing units in illegal settlements.]

Using telepathic voting nearly 24 million Egyptians elect coup-leader Field Marshal al-Sisi in a landslide.

Although credible observers put turnout in this week's election at well less than 15%, Egyptian officials claim that 46% of eligible voters turned out to vote.  Some newspapers, such as al-Akhbar report even higher figures.  Skeptical observers such as the Guardian's David Hearst clearly failed to take into account innovative telepathic voting, which frees voters from the burden of standing in annoying queues.  The technique was so successful that there no annoying queues.

In contrast to Pew polling, which indicated that 54% of Egyptians held positive views of the al-Sisi, 96.9% of Egyptian voters actually cast votes for Field Marshal Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.  So much for the accuracy of polls.  Then again, could it be that only the pro al-Sisi voters showed up to vote? 

In December I wrote the following in Current History: 

After decades of enjoying unchecked political prerogatives, not to mention opportunities for corruption, the denizens of the state who view democracy as an affront to their privileges have taken nearly every possible to ensure the failure of the democratic, and to discredit the very idea of democracy.

The May 2014 presidential election illustrates the point.  A more recent essay by Tareq Ali is apposite.  [Added: Timely analyses at Middle East Eye; and see this edifying NYTimes piece by David Kirkpatrick.]

[It is announced that al-Sisi received 24 million votes.]

"Where are the "votes"?"

Cartoon by Andeel.

“On Memory and Democracy: Skeletons in the Turkish Closet”--The 2014 Campagna-Kerven Lecture on Modern Turkey

As some of you will recall, in April Ayşe Kadıoğlu, Dean Faculty at Sabanci University gave a thoughtful and gutsy talk at Boston University.  The streaming video of the lecture is also available on the CKLS website (where you may also find eight other previous lectures.

Islamists gain power in Kuwaiti elections

Islamists demand new premier » Kuwait Times Website