Insights into the Repressive Character of the Government in Egypt

The response of the Egyptian government to the investigative report "All According to Plan" [حسب الخطة  Arabic link] by Human Rights Watch is extremely revealing and provides insights into the mentality of the al-Sisi regime.  In short, as reported by the flagship al-Ahram, HRW is biased, serves U.S. interests, is in cahoots with the Muslim Brotherhood and had no authority to conduct research in Egypt.  There is a deep-seated suspicion of foreign NGOs in Egypt. I have witnessed it numerous times over the past 35 years.

The latest episode, of course, serves a double purpose, viz., it stifles open discussion of the report and its serious accusations that Field Marshal al-Sisi sits at the helm of a repressive security apparatus that very likely committed crimes against humanity by conducting deliberate mass killings of demonstrators in 2013 following the toppling of Muhammad Mursi as President; and, it serves to warn indigenous rights oriented groups that--unlike HRW officials--they cannot escape reprisal arrests, torture and jail.  You can be sure that while many educated Egyptians with social media access are well aware of the HRW report, but would also confirm that the message to tread very carefully is indelibly received.

The government reaction is addressed by Egyptian Chronicles.

Even in comparison with the worst years of the Mubarak era, this is a very dark chapter in Egypt's modern history.

For official statements in Arabic.

'Ammar al-Zu'bi in al-Jazeera (Arabic)

How long will the honeymoon last in Egypt? Will the security apparatus be able to thwart a divorce?

"Sisi’s gamble requires that he figure out a workable formula for ruling Egypt without the participation of Egyptians, at a historical juncture when Egyptians have become much harder to rule."  "Baheyya"

Does the field marshal have a sense of humor?

Oum Cartoon offers thoughtful commentary on Egypt through the eyes of local cartoonists.  The site deserves your time.

Using telepathic voting nearly 24 million Egyptians elect coup-leader Field Marshal al-Sisi in a landslide.

Although credible observers put turnout in this week's election at well less than 15%, Egyptian officials claim that 46% of eligible voters turned out to vote.  Some newspapers, such as al-Akhbar report even higher figures.  Skeptical observers such as the Guardian's David Hearst clearly failed to take into account innovative telepathic voting, which frees voters from the burden of standing in annoying queues.  The technique was so successful that there no annoying queues.

In contrast to Pew polling, which indicated that 54% of Egyptians held positive views of the al-Sisi, 96.9% of Egyptian voters actually cast votes for Field Marshal Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.  So much for the accuracy of polls.  Then again, could it be that only the pro al-Sisi voters showed up to vote? 

In December I wrote the following in Current History: 

After decades of enjoying unchecked political prerogatives, not to mention opportunities for corruption, the denizens of the state who view democracy as an affront to their privileges have taken nearly every possible to ensure the failure of the democratic, and to discredit the very idea of democracy.

The May 2014 presidential election illustrates the point.  A more recent essay by Tareq Ali is apposite.  [Added: Timely analyses at Middle East Eye; and see this edifying NYTimes piece by David Kirkpatrick.]

[It is announced that al-Sisi received 24 million votes.]

"Where are the "votes"?"

Cartoon by Andeel.

The July 3 coup in Egypt: What the law says

Excerpt from the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2012:

Coups d'etat

Sec. 7008. None of the funds appropriated or otherwise made

available pursuant to titles III through VI of this Act shall be obligated or expended to finance directly any assistance to the

government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup d'etat [added emphasis] or decree or, after the date of enactment of this Act, a coup d'etat or decree in which the military plays a decisive role: 

Provided, <> That assistance may be resumed to such government if the President determines and certifies to the Committees on Appropriations that subsequent to the termination of assistance a democratically elected government has taken office: Provided further, That the provisions of this section shall not apply to assistance to promote democratic elections or public participation in democratic <> processes: 

Provided further, That

[[Page 125 STAT. 1196]]

funds made available pursuant to the previous provisos shall be subject to the regular notification procedures of the Committees on Appropriations.

What the White House says:

"I'm being very clear with you ... this is a complex and difficult issue with significant consequences," Carney said during his daily briefing, the first since Egypt's military ousted Morsi nearly a week ago. Calling the action a coup could cut off more than $1.5 billion in annual U.S. foreign aid for Egypt.
But the Obama administration is reluctant to cut off aid. "We think it would not be in the best interests of the United States" to change its aid program at this time, Carney said. Asked if that would mean the administration would be cutting off aid in the near-term, Carney repeated his response: "we think that would not be in our best interests." 

Walter Armbrust, who knows Egypt quite well, offers a thoughtful essay on the strategy of rope-a-dope strategy of the Egyptian generals.

The essay was published in al-Jazeera English.

It is noteworthy that the satellite TV station al-Fara'ayn, which figures importantly in the essay, apparently has been allowed to re-open after being shut on June 30 for criticism of the army commander.  The station has been a platform for Taufiq 'Ukasha, the Mubarak leftover who has been compared to the U.S. conspiracy monger Glenn Beck.  'Ukasha frequently lambasted President Muhammad Mursi for a surfeit of real and imagined failures and motives.

[With the Constitution suspended, the Ministry of Social Affairs has reclaimed it power to ban NGOs and may seek to move against the MB for its use of violence in defending its Cairo Guidance Bureau from being ransacked by demonstrators.

The July 3 Coup

For the opponents of Muhammad Mursi and the Brotherhood this is a moment of euphoria.  But, the moment is unlikely to be followed by significant improvement in economic conditions.  Moreover, there is a high risk of a return to authoritarian rule. While many Egyptians celebrate the coup, it is prudent to be  deeply distrustful of the Egyptian generals and their motives.  They have been the power behind the curtains for decades, and they have consistently acted to protect their sacrosanct budget and privileges.  Their notion of tutelary or guided democracy is a recipe for continued stagnation and repression. 

Mursi was a lousy president; he was not up to the job and he imprudently over-reached.  Yet, much of the bureaucracy, not least the police and the army, willfully thwarted his power and hastened his failure.  When Mursi attempted to engage in dialogue with his opponents in 2012 (pre-empting an Army initiative), the generals let the opposition know that they should not play.

It is very troubling that the generals have not only dumped Mursi, but have now gone after the senior MB leadership, and much of the second tier leadership.  Many will be charged with crimes, apparently.  This may be preliminary to re-criminalizing the MB, which would be reckless. 

A significant percentage of the voting public will support the MB in future elections. This suggests that the only way to preclude their winning future elections may be to return to Mubarak-era policies of preemptive arrests, voter suppression and manufactured electoral results.

Meantime, the anti-Mursi opposition has demonstrated little ability to organize politically versus mobilizing protests.  Indeed, the only group, other than the MB, with a serious nation-wide organization happens to be al-Nour, the Salafist party (which has aligned momentarily with the Army against Mursi).  The social and cultural views of the Salafists make the MB look moderate by comparison.

Of course, the alternative to the coup would have been for millions of Egyptians to continue to suffer under Mursi's inept rule, and to work for a shift in the power balance through parliamentary elections scheduled previously postponed to this autumn.  That is not appealing advice for people who abhor the MB and who are living through very difficult times, but I suggest that it would have been the wiser course if the generals really were intent on preserving the "January 25 Revolution."  

[Please also read the eminently sensible piece by Emile Nakhleh.  He urges a firm policy response by the Obama Adminstration, including a clearly-stated demand that the Egyptian military allow the acting president a free hand to shepherd a process of national reconciliation.]

Military Regime in Egypt: Communique no. 1

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/02/12/v-print/108637/text-of-egyptian-military-communique.htmlTranslated by McClatchy

February 10, 2011

Based on the responsibility of the Armed Forces and commitment to the protection of the people and the people’s interest and safety, and out of our keenness for the safety of the nation and the citizens, and the possessions of the great Egyptian people, and out of endorsement for the people’s rightful/legitimate demands, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces held a meeting on Thursday February 10, 2011, to study the current situation and how it develops. The council has decided to continue meeting regularly to study the options and procedures and measures to keep the safety of the nation and the ambitions of the great Egyptian people.

Military Regime in Egypt: Communique no. 2

Translated by Miret el-Naggar of McClatchy

February 11, 2011

The armed forces guarantees the following: lifting the state of emergency once the current circumstances end, carrying out the electoral appeals, carrying out the legislative elections, committing to the necessary constitutional amendments, carrying free and fair presidential elections according to the constitutional amendments.

The armed forces also commits to protecting the legitimate demands of the people and ensure their execution according to the specified timetable until there is a peaceful transfer of power which the people are anticipating, and which will lead to a free society. We guarantee there will be no legal pursuit of the honorables who rejected corruption and demanded reform. And we call on the citizens that work has to be regulated at the state facilities, and the return of normal life to protect safety and private possessions and places.

Military Regime in Egypt: Communique No. 3

Published on Danielberhane's blog

February 11, 2011
The 3rd Communiqué of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (on Friday, Feb 11/’11 – about 10pm Cairo time)
At this historical juncture in the history of Egypt , and in light of the decision by President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak to relinquish the office of the presidency of the Republic and the tasking of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces with the administration of the affairs of the nation , and with awareness of the seriousness of the demands of our great people everywhere for fundamental change , the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is examining this matter, asking the aid of God Almighty, to fulfill the aspirations of our great people. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will issue further statements that will announce forthcoming steps, measures and arrangements, and it affirms at the same time that it is not a replacement for the legitimacy that is acceptable to the people.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces extends its highest salutations and appreciation to President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak for his services over the course of his career in war and peace, and for the patriotic decision he took in choosing the supreme interests of the nation. In this respect, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces extends its highest salutations and admiration to the souls of the martyrs who sacrificed their lives for the freedom and security of their country, and to every one of our great people. May God grant us success.
May God’s Peace, mercy and blessing be upon you.

Military Regime in Egypt: Communique #5

Feb. 13, 2010
From the Arabic as read on Nile TV:

In the name of God, the Merciful and the Compassionate!  The following is a constitutional statement.
Given the requirements of this crucial phase in the history of the homeland, and being faithful to its historic and constitutional duties to protect the country and its territorial integrity and to ensure its security, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is well aware that the real challenge faced by our dear homeland, Egypt, is to make progress by releasing the creative energies of all sons of our great people.  This will be done by preparing the ground for freedom and by facilitating the route for democracy through constitutional and legislative amendments which will realize the legitimate demands expressed by our people during the past days.  It [the Supreme Council of the Armed Force] will go even further in a way that suits the stature of Egypt whose people outlined the first lines of human civilization.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces strongly believes that the freedom of people, the rule of law and entrenchment of the values of equality, multiparty democracy, social justice and uprooting corruption are legitimate foundations for any political system which will lead the country in the coming phase.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces also strongly believes that the dignity of the homeland is a reflection of the dignity of every individual in the country.  The free citizen who is proud of his humanity is the cornerstone of the edifice of a strong homeland.
Proceeding from and on the basis of the aforementioned, and hoping to achieve the progress of our people, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has taken the following decisions:
1.  To suspend operation of the provisions of the constitution.
2.  The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will take over management of the country's affairs provisionally for six months;  or until the election of the People's Assembly, of the Consultative Council and of the president of the republic.
3.  The head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will represent the council in the country and abroad.
4.  To dissolve the People's Assembly and the Consultative Council.
5.  The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will issue decrees during the transitional phase.
6.  To Set up a committee to amend some of the articles of the constitution and to determine the rules of a people's referendum on these amendments.
7.  To task Dr Ahmad Muhammad Shafiq with running affairs until a new government is appointed.
8.  To hold elections to the People's Assembly and the Consultative Council, as well as a presidential election.
9.  The state commits itself to implementing international conventions and treaties to which it is party.
God is the One from Whom we seek help and success.
Signed: Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces and Chairman of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Field Marshal Husayn Tantawi.

Reassurances from the Generals

Egyptian Supreme Military Council checklist in Communique Number 4:

• Go back to work
• Current government continues until a new government is formed
• Treaties will be respected (as in Egypt-Israel peace treaty)
• Cooperate with police
• Military will guarantee transition to a "civil state"

The Egyptian people have toppled Mubarak, an extraordinary moment, but the regime has not been toppled, not yet.

The military has taken power, but in reality the military has--even since the 1952 coup-- held the balance of power in Cairo.

The Egyptian military has always lurked in the shadows of the Egyptian regime. The levers of influence were seldom exposed to view.  Yet, when senior civilian politicos, such as Osama al-Baz, reflected on the regime and its prospects for reform, they often pointed to the powerful role of the generals and vetoes they held in their back pockets.  For years, as expectations grew that Husni Mubarak's son Gamal would succeed his father, it was the military veto that thwarted him. 

Now the power of the generals is in the sunlight.  There are some reasons to be optimistic: the army generally showed commendable discipline in its response to the last three weeks of demonstrations, and the demonstrators--whether intuitively or shrewdly--embraced the soldiers; the officer corps is highly professional, promotions are based on merit not connections, and no officer or soldier wishes to be seen as an oppressor of the nation that it is pledged to defend; a skilled group of opposition figures is poised to negotiate a transition, and the Ikhwan have wisely forged consensus with the non-Islamist elements while also remaining in the background; and, the actions and misactions of the military will be in full international view.

Nonetheless, the senior officers have a big stake in the existing system, not least economic interests.  In retirement, many senior officers move to industries dominated by the military, and others move into the thriving private sector.  But many others infiltrate the civilian branches of government.  They will want to protect their prerogatives.  The military leadership will prove cautious about dramatic changes, and they will be nervous about permitting a powerful civilian government to challenge their privileges, or hold officers accountable for their misdeeds. The deep suspicion of the Ikhwan will not be erased, so the generals will want to be assured that the Ikhwan (still an illegal entity) will gain no more than a marginal role in politics. 

When Presidential elections are held, you can be sure that the military will have satisfied itself that its interests will not be jeopardized.  It is too early to determine who all the contenders for the Presidency will be, but it is now clear that Amre Mossa, is a front runner.  [Nile TV reported Feb. 11 that he is resigning his post as SG of the Arab League.]  He is widely respected, and, indeed, is a man of integrity.  He was the popular Foreign Minister of Egypt, so popular that Mubarak that "promoted" him to become Secretary General of the Arab League in order to keep him well distant from Egyptian politics.  But a lot may happen in a year of transition, and many secrets will be exposed, so keep your bets in your pocket for now.

[Also posted on Boston U. website.]

Hamza Hendawi on the generals' moves in Egypt

"Taking advantage of the political vacuum created by the massive demonstrations, the military swiftly moved to settle old scores with two main rival groups. One consists of the mogul businessmen-politicians who have over the past decade rallied around Mubarak's powerful son Gamal to dominate society, causing friction with the military's own economic interests.

"The second is Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party, in which the younger Mubarak rapidly rose through the ranks to become its de facto leader."

Sober and timely analysis by Eberhard Kienle

As you are reading the Kienle piece, please keep in mind a point that I have made on this blog several times:  It is difficult to imagine a feasible political transition that does not take account of the Egyptian military interest.  If Field Marshal Tantawi--who has visited Tahrir twice in recent days--seems to have aligned the Army with the demonstrators and buttressed the popular reputation of the Army as a result, don't think for a minute that Tantawi and his subordinates will embrace a government that does not protect its interests.

Retired senior officials infiltrate nearly every ministry and agency in Egypt.  Active and retired officers govern nearly all of the country's 29 governates.  The military has a significant economic stake in the Egyptian economy, and it is the beneficiary of generous annual subsidies from the U.S.  Any successor to Mubarak who does not enjoy the support of the senior military brass will be actively undermined and thwarted by the generals.

Moreover, although the Obama administration has decided to pull the rug from under Mubarak, the U.S. has done nothing to undermine or diminish the political influence of the Egyptian military.

This means that the next prospects for political change within the regime are more constrained than some observers imagine.  This also means that the inspiring demonstrations that are occurring in Egypt do not, strictly speaking, constitute a revolution in the sense of actually toppling a regime.

In saying this I do not intend to minimize the possibilities for change, in terms of a heightened role for the rule of law, more concerted attention to the needs of rank-and-file citizens, fairer elections or a reduction in massive episodes for corruption, but there is no doubt that many of those who demonstrated against the regime will be disappointed by the absence of sweeping changes.

State of Emergency extended in Egypt for two more years

With one brief hiatus, a State of Emergency has been in effect in Egypt for almost three decades, ever since the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981. Under the State of Emergency, opposition figures may be routinely arrested and subjected to security courts where justice is summary, and there is no right of appeal or meaningful legal representation. The State of Emergency is arbitrarily used to repress, intimidate and lock up regime opponents.

Since the Palestine elections won by Hamas in 2006, the U.S. has been largely quiet about the basic rights in Egypt. When demarches have been delivered, it has been without fanfare or effect. Thus, it is commendable that the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has spoken out quite clearly about the need for the State of Emergency to end. Her statement will annoy Mubarak and Company especially because it comes as the preparations for the 2011 Presidential "election" are underway. While it is doubtful that the regime will assent to an end of its State of Emergency ("within the coming months"), the Clinton statement will lend some needed encouragement to the opposition.

The Clinton statement:

May 11, 2010

---

Today, the Government of Egypt announced that it is extending the State of Emergency for an additional two years. This extension is regrettable given the pledge made by the government to the Egyptian people in 2005. A broad range of Egyptian voices, including Egypt’s National Council on Human Rights, have called for the elimination of the State of Emergency.

Egyptian Government also announced today that it would restrict the use of the Emergency Authority to certain categories of cases, and pledged once again to work to pass counterterrorism legislation and lift the State of Emergency. Any move to significantly narrow the application of the Emergency Law would be a step forward if it means greater protection of civil liberties for Egyptian citizens in practice. We are confident that Egypt can draft and adopt effective counterterrorism legislation that conforms to international standards for civil liberties and due process. And the United States urges Egypt to complete this legislation on an urgent basis and to rescind the State of Emergency within the coming months.

The United States understands the challenges that terrorism poses to free societies and we believe that effective counterterrorism measures can be based on legal principles that protect the rights of all citizens.

U.S. interests need to be disentangled from Israel's contempt for a two-state solution

And the White House weighs in again--David Axelrod: "... it is important for our own security that we move forward and resolve this very difficult issue."

Five myths about Iran and nuclear weapons

1. Iran is on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon.
2. A military strike would knock out Iran's program.
3. We can cripple Iran with sanctions.
4. A new government in Iran would abandon the nuclear program.
5. Iran is the main nuclear threat in the Middle East.

Quoted from conclusion==A comprehensive plan must build barriers against acquiring nuclear weapons and must reduce the motivation to do so. This means dealing with the regional security and prestige issues that motivate most countries to start nuclear programs. It requires a global approach that deals with both sides of the nuclear coin: disarmament and proliferation. Reducing existing nuclear stockpiles creates the support needed to stop the spread of the weapons; stopping the spread creates the security needed to continue reductions. We must keep flipping that coin over. Each flip, each step, makes us a little safer.

The author is Joseph Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund. He is respected authority on nuclear profileration.

Turkey has provided an excellent example for the U.S.

The U.S. enjoys a multitude of means through which to signal its seriousness to Palestinians and Israelis about its goal of ending the occupation and fostering a two-state solution. Leveraging U.S. influence vis-a-vis the Palestinian side is already standard practice, but the tendency has been to stick to rhetoric and diplomatic pressure vis-a-vis Israel. Thus, prior to the disappointing Obama-'Abbas-Netanyahu meeting in New York, the U.S. went ahead with a planned naval exercise with the Israeli military rather than postponing it. As the recent Turkish example illustrates, canceling military exercises pushes Israel's angst meter. Given the extensive ties between the Pentagon and the Israeli military there are many, many ways to signal displeasure, ranging from sending a major instead instead of a general to a planned meeting, postponing joint military exercises, or delaying or even canceling procurement decisions.

If President Obama is serious, he should learn from Turkey's timely wake-up call.

Relevant earlier post.