1. Iran is on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon.
2. A military strike would knock out Iran's program.
3. We can cripple Iran with sanctions.
4. A new government in Iran would abandon the nuclear program.
5. Iran is the main nuclear threat in the Middle East.
Quoted from conclusion==A comprehensive plan must build barriers against acquiring nuclear weapons and must reduce the motivation to do so. This means dealing with the regional security and prestige issues that motivate most countries to start nuclear programs. It requires a global approach that deals with both sides of the nuclear coin: disarmament and proliferation. Reducing existing nuclear stockpiles creates the support needed to stop the spread of the weapons; stopping the spread creates the security needed to continue reductions. We must keep flipping that coin over. Each flip, each step, makes us a little safer.
The author is Joseph Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund. He is respected authority on nuclear profileration.