Alan Berger's thoughtful piece on Syria

"FRIEDRICH NIETZSCHE called states the “coldest of all cold monsters.’’ Anyone doubting the truth of Nietzsche’s dictum need only contemplate the crimes against humanity perpetrated by the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad and the complicity of his backers in Tehran and Moscow — and then ponder the hesitation of onlooker states to accept what a UN resolution has called their “responsibility to protect’’ civilians from Assad’s tanks, artillery, and snipers."

Berger concludes by with a prescription for a democratic, pluralist states with guarantees for minority community, of course including the 'Alawis.  The dilemma is that the Syria regime has systematically decimated civil society in the Syria with the result that the sinews of a participant political system need to built de novo.  As in Iraq and in Libya, it is not that the people would not wish to live in a freer, even democratic society, but the prospects are problematic, except insofar as political institutions are constructed along sectarian or kinship lines.  The legacy of these rapacious regimes is a deformed political space, and only time, and trial and error may rehabilitate that space.

Two noteworthy essays on Syria with opposite conclusions

Joshua Landis arguing that Bashar al-Asad will ride the tempest and survive, and Peter Harling and Sarah Birke concluding that the regime has maneuvered into a cul de sac while majority of Syrians are thinking beyond the present regime and are unwilling to go back.

If there was ever an example of an article by people who don't get out enough, it is this one by two leading inside-the-beltway enthusiasts for a bigger U.S. military footprint in Iraq

It is as fatuous to imagine that Iraqi political leaders would accept a return of U.S. troops to Iraq, as it is strange to argue that recent sectarian violence was precipitated by the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq.

Emile Nakhleh in the Financial Times on inevitable intervention in Syria

"So what should be done? The assistance should begin with establishing a haven for the opposition and the military personnel who defect from the regime, as in northern Iraq in 1991. Food, water, clothes, medical supplies and technical equipment should be dropped into the safety zone. Ankara would have to play a critical role in planning, and ultimately in maintaining and supplying the zone, as it would almost certainly have to be contiguous to Turkey.
"If Syrian forces violate the sanctuary, the west should arm the opposition and work with military defectors to organise more effective resistance. If that fails to deter the regime’s brutality and more deaths occur, the west should consider putting a limited number of “boots on the ground”, beginning with the “liberated” zone."

Six months ago Barack Obama called for Bashar al-Asad to step out of the way, so what is new about U.S. policy vis-a-vis Syria is not regime change lite, but an inching forward to intervention in Syria. The modality will be "humanitarian relief" but the effective delivery of aid cannot be done without security.  Since neither the Syrian government nor the fractious opposition can or will provide security, someone else will have to be involved. This means there will be a level of military intervention that will likely only increase with time. This may be the right answer, but we should not confuse ourselves about the slippery slope that follows, even if the initial involvement is limited to "safety zones" as Emile Nakhleh suggests, or the more elaborately sketched "no-kill zones" promoted by Anne-Marie Slaughter.  Absent a willing government in Damascus, any attempt to effectively bring a halt to the reprehensible violence in Syria will require armed intervention no matter the euphemism that is employed. 

Sealed report documenting the case for crimes against humanity by Bashar al-Asad and others

"The United Nations has drawn up a list of the most senior officials in the Syrian regime, including, it is claimed, President Bashar al-Assad himself, who it says should be investigated for ordering "crimes against humanity" and other gross human rights violations."

November 2011 report the UN's Human Rights Report.

Fitting remembrance of Marie Colvin from Jim Muir

The dauntless Marie Colvin falls in Baba Amr, Homs after filing yet another no holds barred report--“a complete and utter lie that they are only targeting terrorists…the Syrian army is simply shelling a city of cold, starving civilians.”

Links to Marie Colvin's last TV interview on February 22, just hours before she and Remi Ochlik were felled by Syrian fire.  Other pertinent connections are found in the Telegraph piece.  On February 21, 2012, she was featured on the BBC giving a first hand and trenchant account of persistent, indiscriminate Syrian tank and artillery fire.

Remi Ochlik, the 28-year old French photojournalist, was killed at Colvin's side.  His photographs from Libya were honored last month with a first prize from World Press Photo and much of his work may be viewed at his website.

Reports from the scene suggest a purposeful efforts by the Syrian forces to target anyone--whether seasoned correspondent or citizen-journalist attempting to get news out of the city.  "Abu Abdu al-Homsi, an opposition activist, said the Syrian Army had cut phone lines into the city and were bombing any buildings where they detected mobile phone signals."

Just the day before, Rami el-Sayed the Syrian blogger whose videos regularly gave lie to Syrian government claims that its forces were not targetting civilians or pursuing a scorced earth strategy.



"He was killed because his pictures portrayed truth..."  Allah yirhamu.

In a tribute on Bambuser, his call for action was posted:

"Babaamr is facing a genocide right now. I will never forgive you for your silence. You all have just give us your words but we need actions. However our hearts will always be with those who risk their life for our freedom. I know what we need! We need campaigns everywhere inside Syria and outside Syria, and now we need all people in front of all embassies all over the world. In a few hours there will be NO place called BabaAmr and I expect this will be my last message and no one will forgive you who talked but didn't act."

"I was shot by an Israeli sniper."--Anthony Shadid

Shadid was shot by the sniper in 2002 while reporting from Ramallah.  Compare this to the way the shooting was covered by the NYTimes (this convenient aloofness from key facts has also been noted by As'ad AbuKhalil).

"He was no stranger to injury, harassment and arrest. In 2002, while working for The Globe, he was shot and wounded in the shoulder as he walked on a street in Ramallah [ital. added], in the Israeli-occupied West Bank."

The Shadid quote [starts at about 41:30 in the interview] is from a fascinating interview conducted by Chris Lydon with lots of commentary by Anthony Shadid about Iraq,  how well or poorly Americans understand the Middle East, press bias, the chimera of objectivity, and his career.

[This 2002 piece by Sherry Ricchiardi titled "Bullying the Press" is relevant.]

"In a class of his own"--Emile Nakhleh on Anthony Shadid

Anthony Shadid's untimely and tragic death brings sorrow to all of us who have followed mass protests in the Arab world in the past year.  The New York Times' obituary this morning describes his grace, perception, intellect, and writing.  I would add, however, that his visceral appreciation of his culture and his burning desire to educate Western readers on the lives of normal people through elegant and graceful reporting are the hallmark of his short but awe-inspiring career.

The Stimson Center's "Seismic Shift" report last year on why so many Americans failed to anticipate the change in the Arab world in 2011 stated that only two groups understood the region well--NGO activists who have worked in the region for years and expert journalists who have covered the popular revolts that toppled dictatorial regimes.  Anthony Shadid headed the list of those journalists.  He was by every measure a distinguished journalist and a gentleman.  I had the honor and pleasure of listening to him at a number of meetings in Washington in recent years and was always impressed by his well-constructed arguments and his passion and compassion for the subjects of his reporting.  When the New York Times hired him from the Washington Post, the Times' management rightly admitted he was a great catch.  It's no exaggeration to say that Anthony Shadid was in a class of his own when it came to reporting, writing, and analyzing the complex cultural context of the societies he was covering. Often, government analysts would read Anthony Shadid’s analytic articles in the Times and before that in the Post whenever they wanted to learn about the cultural nuances in Arab societies. While many journalists focused on the "high politics" of ruling elites, Anthony Shadid delved into the "low politics" of the average people who struggled daily under the repression, corruption, and nepotism of those same ruling elites.  The annals of American journalism will be a vacant place without his reporting.  He will be missed sorely.  I personally will miss reading his elegant and informative reporting in the Times.  May God bless his soul.  Allah yerhamu [God have mercy on him]!

Emile Nakhleh

Former Senior Intelligence Office and author of A Necessary Engagement:  Reinventing America’s Relations with the Muslim World 

Devastating, horrible news--Anthony Shadid dies with his boots on in Syria

I have been reading Anthony's House of Stone, his pitch perfect and beautifully wrought chronicle of his struggle to bring his ancestral home in Marjayoun back to life.  The last phone conversation I had with him was a couple of years ago in Lebanon.  I reached him in south Lebanon and he described himself captured by the challenge of restoring his great grandfather's house.  I will have more to say about the book shortly, but for now I must simply express my profound sadness about Anthony's death.  So many who crossed paths with him will be pained by the loss of this gifted, brave and astounding man.

After the rose petals fall, the scent remains...

Earlier posts here on Anthony Shadid's work.

Entertaining and thoughtful comments by Robert Gates at William and Mary in February. He was speaking at an annual Charter Day ceremony that featured the award of well-earned honorary degree to James A. Bill, the eminent scholar of Iran.

Bill's papers have been donated to William and Mary and are available there to researchers.  http://scrc.swem.wm.edu/?p=collections/findingaid&id=6269&q=&rootcontentid=21263#id21263

Adel Imam is serious comedian who is a household name in Egypt. He has just been sentenced in absentia to three months of jail time, with hard labor, for offending Islam in a couple of recent films.

Adel Imam's films.

Storyful--handy beta site tracking Libya struggle

Readers of Chinese may find this article helpful

Evidence up in smoke at the Ministry of Interior

Well-argued OPED on Bahrain

Emile Nakhleh, whose 1975 book is a seminal account of Bahraini politics, offers a smart commentary on Bahrain.

"In truth, Bahrain is just one further country in which the spectre of Shia threat has been carefully constructed to maintain US support for a repressive regime. When I was in the intelligence community, we briefed about sources of instability, often citing the systematic discrimination against the Shia. These grievances, now voiced by protesters, have seen the majority excluded from power and denied basic freedoms for decades."
..........................
"Whatever happens, the west must be sceptical of talk about a rising Shia crescent. Iran’s influence has increased since the invasion of Iraq. But few Shia groups in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon have turned to it for guidance. Instead, they focus on domestic grievances. If there is a Shia revival, it is country specific. Iran’s influence in these places is no larger than it ever was."

What are Israeli strategists thinking? One example.

The setting for these remarks was the Herzliya National Security Conference, in early February.  They are reported in Defense News, Feb. 14, 2011, pp. 1 and 8.

Retired U.S. Marine Gen. James Jones, who up until last October served as Obama’s national securi­ty adviser, dismissed claims of Washington’s decline.

“I reject the idea that the United States is in decline or even in rela­tive decline,” Jones told conference participants here. “To be sure, there is much to be done to ensure we are as successful in the 21st century as we were in the 20th ... and Egypt is just a small sign of the potential for change.” Alongside efforts to prevent a nu­clear-armed Iran and to fortify a coalition of the moderates com­prised of pro-Western Arab states respectful of the universal rights of its people, Jones cited the Israeli-Palestinian peace process as “a mat­ter of urgent necessity.” Jones said the lack of a peace deal jeopardizes regional stability by un­dermining moderates, provoking the young and hopeless classes, and empowering Iran.

Time is not on Israel’s side, Jones warned: “The growing isolation of Israel is a very real concern. The number of countries that recognize a Palestinian state can outrank the number of countries that recognize Israel.” Jones urged Israel’s leaders to restart peace negotiations.

“Failure to act could ignite a rep­etition of Egypt on streets in neigh­boring countries,” he said. “Will ex­tremists win the hearts and minds of the young Arab street? Or will moderate voices prevail for a two­state solution? This could be the most important national security question of our time, and if we fail, history will not forgive us.” Amos Gilead, director for politi­cal-military affairs at Israel’s Min­istry of Defense, was brutally direct in rejecting Jones’ premise.

“Even if we sign an agreement to­morrow with the [Palestinian Au­thority], they won’t honor it,” Gilead said. “Look around the Middle East: If there is a democratic process here, it will bring, for sure, hell.” In tactless and borderline racist remarks here, Gilead insisted that democracy and stability cannot co­exist in the Arab Middle East.

“In the Middle East and the Arab world, there is no place for democ­racy,” he said.

Gilead said free elections in the region would breed either a Gaza­like “Hamastan,” or Lebanon, which he described as a so-called democracy.

“In Lebanon, there is a constitu­tion without a state. They have an elected president, prime minister, speaker, but the country is losing it­self when it allows entities more powerful than Lebanon to drive the agenda,” Gilead said, alluding to Hezbollah.

“The only place in the region with a real chance of democracy is Iran,” a non-Arab nation, he said. “But what was the reaction to Iranian democratic forces? Indifference. And so dissenters in Iran got the message and we lost the opportuni­ty to change Iran.”

No longer thwarted: Egypt's Hizb al-Wasat finally gains legal status

One of the interesting developments of the 1990s in Egypt was that a group of younger members of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as other independently minded Muslims and Christians, attempted to create a Party of the Center, or Hizh al-Wasat.  They were thwarted both by the government and the Muslim Brotherhood. Indeed, the leadership of  the Brotherhood was infuriated.  There were several interesting aspects of this enterprise: it revealed generational differences within the Brotherhood, provided visibility to moderate Muslim thinkers (notably Muhammad Salim al-'Awaa), and presented an attempt to exemplify toleration, women's rights, pluralism and a circumscribed role for Shari'a in civil law.

Initially, the government saw this initiative as camouflage for the Brotherhood to gain legal status. However, after it was plain that that was not the case, I am sure that the enduring problem with al-Wasat was precisely that it was "too reasonable" and would thereby undermine the consistent efforts of the government to demonize Islamism. 


"Thwarted Politics" is my 2005 study of Hizb al-Wasat.  The study appears in Remaking Muslim Politics, a volume edited by Robert W. Hefner, and published by Princeton University Press.

Also see this al-Hayat article (Arabic) and this earlier post.

Too little, too late and too often

Crown Prince Salman has offered a dialogue once calm is restored to Bahrain.  This is a familiar tune, unfortunately.  

Several major questions will determine whether productive dialogue is feasible:

• Will moderate opposition leaders continue to hold sway in light of the government's response to peaceful demonstrations?  Genuinely peaceful men, such as Sheikh 'Ali Salman who heads Wefaq, have been steadily discredited by their inability to show rewards for moderation and for participating in the system.
• The demonstrators have included Shi'i and Sunni Muslims, although the majority are Shi'a. This is not simply a sectarian struggle.  For those demonstrating, a key concern is the privileged status of the al-Khalifas and their close tribal allies.  No reform substantial reform is possible unless the special privileges of the al-Khalifa will be addressed.  These privileges include a stranglehold on the limited territory of Bahrain.
• The notoriously corrupt Prime Minister has been in power for 40 years.  His hands are all over the thuggish response to the demonstrations.  Will he be forced to step down prior to a dialogue?
• Does the King or the Crown Prince have a free hand to negotiate, or is their flexibility held in check by Saudi Arabia?  Hard-knuckle diplomacy from the U.S. may be necessary to convince Saudi Arabia to back off.
• What was the level of Saudi involvement in the violence of February 18th?  The Saudis have worked hard to keep the skids on substantive reform in Bahrain, not least because they worry that it will prove contagious among its own Shi'i Muslims.
• Will the government be able to create more jobs to reduce unemployment?  Presently, most blue-collar labor is being performed expatriate workers, with firms hiring only enough Bahraini workers to comply with Bahrainization requirements. 
• Will the government take quick steps to improve living conditions in cities such as Sitrah or major villages such as Diraz, where public services and facilities are dreadful?

Police attack the behaved Pearl Roundabout Sit-in, Manama, Feb. 17, 2011: amateur video

Demonstrators held a “Day of Wrath” in Bahrain on February 14th. After initial clashes with police, including two deaths of civilians, the protests were allowed to continue

Then in the bleak hours of the morning, on Feb. 17, the police moved in with batons, truncheons and tear gas to roust the sleeping demonstrators, who comprised young and old, and fairly representative sample of the population.  Initial reports indicate that two were killed, and others were injured seriously.

An amateur video of the police action.  Try this link: http://youtu.be/BAS-JHkr0tE

CNN report

With the exemplars of Tunisia and Egypt in plain view, not to mention the previous patterns of protest in Bahrain, it would seem quite doubtful that King Hamad’s police have quelled the
demonstrators desire to see substantive change.

The BBC summarizes what the Bahraini demonstrators say they want:

Prisoners to be released.
More jobs and housing.
The creation of a more representative government and empowered parliament.
Release of political prisoners.
Replacement of the famously corrupt Prime Minister Shaykh Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa, who has been in office for 40 years (he is the only prime minister has ever had)

Local web sites of note:

Bahrain Center for Human Rights
bintbattuta in bahrain

Mahmood

Silly Bahraini Girl