Syria: background on sectarian divisions

Lindsay Gifford reflects on ethno-sectarian minorities and the worsening of inter-sectarian relations in Syria.

U.S. Needs Muslim Allies (esp. to deal with Afghanistan): Sensible piece by my colleague Husain Haqqani

Excerpts from "Why the U.S. Needs Muslim Allies" in WaPo, Nov. 1, 2012:

"Using drones to find and kill al-Qaeda leaders already known to U.S. intelligence will not end the war, either. Eventually, the United States will have to find Muslim allies who help limit the influence of ideas or organizations that turn some young Muslims into terrorists. Washington has made few efforts toward that end, depending on friendly autocrats or whoever manages to get elected instead of working to strengthen modernizing democrats who share Western values. Governments in the Muslim world would also have to deny terrorist groups the havens they enjoy now and shut down the organized recruitment and training of future terrorists.

"Taliban leader Mohammad Omar is frequently reported to have said, “Americans have the watches, but we have the time.” By announcing the deadline for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the Obama administration has effectively told al-Qaeda and the Taliban how long they have to wait for the Americans to depart.... 

"Time is needed to raise an effective Afghan national army able to secure the country....

"Consider also that the impending U.S. withdrawal provides little incentive for Pakistan’s military to revisit its ambitions in Afghanistan. Although the Taliban increasingly threaten Pakistan, the Pakistani military and intelligence services continue to make distinctions among groups of Taliban and jihadis and considers some of them strategic allies. Pakistan is still clinging to hopes of greater influence over Afghanistan with the help of various Taliban factions after the withdrawal."

Press freedom in Turkey has been impaired and threatened by the actions of PM Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government

The Committee to Protect Journalists has published a report detailing the jailing and intimidation of journalists.  The full report, Turkey's Press Freedom Crisis, is downloadable here.

Syrian refugee numbers understate the immensity of the dislocation that has already occurred

Over 300,000 Syrians are refugees outside of their country, in addition to large numbers in Jordan, Iraq, Turkey and Lebanon, there are sizable numbers of better-off Syrians in the Gulf, esp. in the UAE.  What we are lacking are reliable estimates of internal refugees.  As a benchmark, it should be kept in mind that internally displaced persons and external refugees in Iraq (c. 2006-7) reached one seventh of the population of the total population (approx. 28m. vs. 23 m. in Syria) of Iraq, of whom about sixty percent were internally displaced.  That is a reminder that for every one of the 300,000 Syrians who have probably fled their country, there are probably another 300,000 or so who have sought shelter in Syrian villages and towns.  In other words, when considering the numbers of refugees, one should probably assume that the reported numbers are only a fraction of the human dislocation that has occurred to date.

Iran’s Domestic Politics & the Nuclear Standoff

Lecture

“Iran’s Domestic Politics & the Nuclear Standoff with the United States: Internal dynamic of Iran’s Nuclear Intentions”

Speaker: Bahman Baktiari

Wednesday, April 18, 2012
12:00 to 1:30 pm
Eilts Conference Room, 154 Bay State Road, Room 203, Boston, MA

Bahman Baktiari is the Executive Director of the International Foundation for Civil Society in Salt Lake City, UT. He received his PhD in Government from Woodrow Wilson Department of Government and Foreign Affairs at University of Virginia. He has published extensively on Iranian politics and society. His major publication Parliamentary Politics in Revolutionary Iran was published by University Press of Florida in 1997.

His most recent publications include “Sharia Politics and the Transformation of Islamic Law in Iran ” was published in Shari‘a Politics: Islamic Law and Society in the Modern World , edited by Robert W. Hefner, Indiana University Press ( 2011), Seeking International Legitimacy: Understanding the Dynamics of Nuclear Nationalism in Iran, in Nuclear Politics in Iran, edited by Judith S. Yaphe, published by the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University (2010), Iran’s Conservative Moment, Current History ( January 2007), Voices within Islam: Four Perspectives on Tolerance and Diversity, Current History (January 2005), Doubting Reforms in Iran ( coauthored with Haleh Vaziri ) Current History ( January 2003), Impact of September 11th on Iranian Foreign Policy, Middle East Policy ( December 2002), Exporting the Islamic Revolution: Iranian-Egyptian Relations, With Asef Bayat in N. Keddie and R. Mathee edited, Iran and the Surrounding World: Interactions in Culture and Cultural Politics, University of Washington Press ( 2002). He also published several opinion pieces the Christian Science Monitor on Iranian political developments and its impact on foreign policy and relations with the United States.He has been interviewed on several national media outlets, including the NPR Morning Edition, Talk of the Nations, The Todd Feinburg Radio, and Jim Lehrer NewsHour.

Free and open to the public. Includes lunch.

IDF lt. colonel responds to peaceful protest

[Added: more information on the incident and other videos]

"Democratic" Israel mobilizes to exclude pro-Palestinian demonstrators: Imagine that Israel might spend as much energy confronting violent settlers who victimize Palestinian civilians

Jillian Schwedler on the Political Geography of the Arab Spring

Lecture with Jillian Schwedler

“The Political Geography of the Arab Spring”

Wednesday, April 18, 2012
5:00 to 6:30 pm
International Relations Conference Room
152 Bay State Road, Room 102, Boston, MA

Join us as Dr. Jillian Schwedler discusses the political changes since the Arab Spring and the geographical implications for the area today. Dr. Jillian Schwedler is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Beginning September 2013, she will join the faculty of the City University of New York, Hunter College, as Professor of Political Science. Dr. Schwedler is author of the award-winning Faith in Moderation: Islamist Parties in Jordan and Yemen (Cambridge 2006) and most recently editor (with Dr. Laleh Khalili) of Policing and Prisons in the Middle East (Columbia/Hurst 2010). Her articles have appeared in World Politics, Comparative Politics, Middle East Policy, Middle East Report, Journal of Democracy, and Social Movement Studies (among others). Dr. Schwedler was a member of the editorial committee (1995-2002) and chair of the board of directors (2002-2009) of the Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP), publishers of Middle East Report. She has conducted research in Jordan, Yemen, and Egypt and has traveled extensively throughout the region. She is currently finishing a book manuscript tentatively titled “Protesting Jordan: Space, Law, Dissent,” which examines political protests and policing in the Hashemite Kingdom from 1946 to the present.

Free and open to the public.

Seats are limited. Please let us know if you plan to attend.

"Citizenship and Community in Iraqi Politics and Society", Sami Zubaida, April 2 at Boston U.

The Institute for Iraqi Studies at Boston University is please to present:

"Citizenship and Community in Iraqi Politics and Society"

Speaker: Sami Zubaida

Monday, April 2, 2012

4:30 PM

Boston University, Room B19, 745 Commonwealth Ave., Boston MA 02215

On target commentary on the cut-off of UNESCO funding by the Congress (and the hidden hands of AIPAC)

And, if you have not viewed the important segment by comedian John Oliver, you should watch it now.

"Any rally or march...at any public place...shall be deemed a riot..." /s/ Bashar al-Asad, August 29, 2011

From a cache of documents carried to Turkey by defecting intelligence official Abdul Majid Barakat.

Israeli government continues to block the sale of Boeing AWACS to Turkey

The sale is part of a $1.6 billion Boeing contract with Turkey.  

The Shattered Nation: Protest, Violence and Social Fragmentation in the Syrian Uprising

Paulo Pinto, April 3, 2012 at Boston University

In Bashar al-Asad's Circle: Hadeel al-Ali

The emails released by the Guardian reveal that Bashar al-Asad's confidantes and advisers include a couple of young Syrian women who attended college in the U.S. and who had developed expertise in PR and social media.  Among other tasks, these inner circle advisers kept Bashar appraised of what was being said (and by whom) on social media, especially Facebook. Hadeel al-Ali [هديل العلي], who posted the above snapshot of a young Bashar on Facebook, is one the advisers.  Another is Sheherazad Ja'afari, the daughter of Syria's ambassador to the UN, who is cited on a previous post.

Al-Ali, who is likely in her mid-twenties, attended Montana State University from 2006-2008.  Here is her posting in the Alumni Directory:

AL-ALI, Hadeel

Political Science, Undergraduate Student, 2006-2008

[email address omitted]

Favorite memories: Oh I have a lot of lovely memories of Bozeman, such as Music on Main, Sweet Pea Festival, almost breaking my leg learning how to ski:), hiking to my favorite "M", Food Bazaar, amazing landscape, gorgeous mountains, the friendly people of Bozeman, having OIP staff as a wonderful family and great friends, attending President Obama's speech and shaking his hand (!), wearing my cowboy boots and hat and feeling like a local :). Well, finding a second home in America pretty much summarizes it all... Thank you Bozeman!

I am currently working on finishing my last year of English Literature at Damascus University. I am also teaching English as a second language at Arab International University, in addition to being a part-time volunteer with the UNHCR/UNICEF.

The Bahrain government has just announced that 20 health professionals who were originally tried and convicted by miliary courts will be will be retried. Their crime: aiding wounded protesters. The quality of justice in Bahrain is revealed in a Human Rights Watch report linked here.

Alan Berger's thoughtful piece on Syria

"FRIEDRICH NIETZSCHE called states the “coldest of all cold monsters.’’ Anyone doubting the truth of Nietzsche’s dictum need only contemplate the crimes against humanity perpetrated by the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad and the complicity of his backers in Tehran and Moscow — and then ponder the hesitation of onlooker states to accept what a UN resolution has called their “responsibility to protect’’ civilians from Assad’s tanks, artillery, and snipers."

Berger concludes by with a prescription for a democratic, pluralist states with guarantees for minority community, of course including the 'Alawis.  The dilemma is that the Syria regime has systematically decimated civil society in the Syria with the result that the sinews of a participant political system need to built de novo.  As in Iraq and in Libya, it is not that the people would not wish to live in a freer, even democratic society, but the prospects are problematic, except insofar as political institutions are constructed along sectarian or kinship lines.  The legacy of these rapacious regimes is a deformed political space, and only time, and trial and error may rehabilitate that space.

Sarah Tobin's thoughtful essay on the Jordanian middle class and their tepid embrace of a Jordan spring

Two noteworthy essays on Syria with opposite conclusions

Joshua Landis arguing that Bashar al-Asad will ride the tempest and survive, and Peter Harling and Sarah Birke concluding that the regime has maneuvered into a cul de sac while majority of Syrians are thinking beyond the present regime and are unwilling to go back.

If there was ever an example of an article by people who don't get out enough, it is this one by two leading inside-the-beltway enthusiasts for a bigger U.S. military footprint in Iraq

It is as fatuous to imagine that Iraqi political leaders would accept a return of U.S. troops to Iraq, as it is strange to argue that recent sectarian violence was precipitated by the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq.

Emile Nakhleh in the Financial Times on inevitable intervention in Syria

"So what should be done? The assistance should begin with establishing a haven for the opposition and the military personnel who defect from the regime, as in northern Iraq in 1991. Food, water, clothes, medical supplies and technical equipment should be dropped into the safety zone. Ankara would have to play a critical role in planning, and ultimately in maintaining and supplying the zone, as it would almost certainly have to be contiguous to Turkey.
"If Syrian forces violate the sanctuary, the west should arm the opposition and work with military defectors to organise more effective resistance. If that fails to deter the regime’s brutality and more deaths occur, the west should consider putting a limited number of “boots on the ground”, beginning with the “liberated” zone."

Six months ago Barack Obama called for Bashar al-Asad to step out of the way, so what is new about U.S. policy vis-a-vis Syria is not regime change lite, but an inching forward to intervention in Syria. The modality will be "humanitarian relief" but the effective delivery of aid cannot be done without security.  Since neither the Syrian government nor the fractious opposition can or will provide security, someone else will have to be involved. This means there will be a level of military intervention that will likely only increase with time. This may be the right answer, but we should not confuse ourselves about the slippery slope that follows, even if the initial involvement is limited to "safety zones" as Emile Nakhleh suggests, or the more elaborately sketched "no-kill zones" promoted by Anne-Marie Slaughter.  Absent a willing government in Damascus, any attempt to effectively bring a halt to the reprehensible violence in Syria will require armed intervention no matter the euphemism that is employed.