U.S. Needs Muslim Allies (esp. to deal with Afghanistan): Sensible piece by my colleague Husain Haqqani

Excerpts from "Why the U.S. Needs Muslim Allies" in WaPo, Nov. 1, 2012:

"Using drones to find and kill al-Qaeda leaders already known to U.S. intelligence will not end the war, either. Eventually, the United States will have to find Muslim allies who help limit the influence of ideas or organizations that turn some young Muslims into terrorists. Washington has made few efforts toward that end, depending on friendly autocrats or whoever manages to get elected instead of working to strengthen modernizing democrats who share Western values. Governments in the Muslim world would also have to deny terrorist groups the havens they enjoy now and shut down the organized recruitment and training of future terrorists.

"Taliban leader Mohammad Omar is frequently reported to have said, “Americans have the watches, but we have the time.” By announcing the deadline for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the Obama administration has effectively told al-Qaeda and the Taliban how long they have to wait for the Americans to depart.... 

"Time is needed to raise an effective Afghan national army able to secure the country....

"Consider also that the impending U.S. withdrawal provides little incentive for Pakistan’s military to revisit its ambitions in Afghanistan. Although the Taliban increasingly threaten Pakistan, the Pakistani military and intelligence services continue to make distinctions among groups of Taliban and jihadis and considers some of them strategic allies. Pakistan is still clinging to hopes of greater influence over Afghanistan with the help of various Taliban factions after the withdrawal."

Joseph Collins has been observing Afghanistan for 30 years.

Download his new primer for free.  Collins, who was a colleague on the Social Sciences faculty at West Point, is balanced, informed and lucid.

US National debt is in excess of $14 trillion. So consider that the Cost of War project finds that the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will end up costing $4,000,000, 000,000 (four trillion).

Project web page offers analyses of economic, human and political costs of these wars.  Or download the executive summary, or the constituent papers.

Democracy--Afghan style

Ryan C. Crocker will be the next U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan

No living U.S. diplomat can rival Ryan Crocker's record for service in difficult posts, often at the most trying an dangerous times.  His posts have included Afghanistan (one prior assignment), Iran, Iraq (three times, once as the ambassador), Kuwait (as ambassador), Lebanon (twice, once as ambassador), Pakistan (as ambassador), and Syria (as ambassador).

Last autumn he delivered the inaugural lecture for the Boston University Institute for Iraqi Studies.  Here is the link to the video.

BU's own Lael Adams

"While most key decisions about development in Afghanistan unfortunately often happen at the faraway desks of foreign aid officials or corporate development companies, the decisions that matter most should be made, or at least sincerely informed, by the community members, with the facilitation of outside organizations. While some international donors may be looking to check a project off their list or to disburse money to increase their “burn rate,” Afghan communities are looking for a piece of infrastructure that can improve their quality of life and, more importantly, will be able to improve the lives of their grandchildren and great-grandchildren.

"That is sustainability."

What discerning readers interested in Afghanistan are reading

As regular visits to From the Field already know, Tom Barfield's Afghanistan book is peerless.

One of America's exceptional diplomats reflects on his four decades in the Middle East, including his role in Iraq and Afghanistan

Ryan Crocker is one of those diplomats who hated serving in Washington and yearned to be in the field. He served as U.S. Ambassador in four key countries--Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq--and he opened the U.S. Embassy in Kabul in 2001. He has notable comments on the U.S. dialogue with Iran, which ended in the spring of 2003, after a period of important cooperation in Afghanistan, as well as about his service in Iraq.

I first met him almost 30 years when he was Political Officer in Beirut (before his office was blown up when the embassy was destroyed in April 1983). I was immediately impressed by his open mind, his curiosity and his feel for what was going on in Lebanon at the time. I strongly urge that you spend some time reading his reflections.

The US and Britain struggle to describe what they hope to accomplish in Aghanistan, but what they seem to seek is beyond their ability to attain.

So argues Rory Stewart in an essay that reflects history's lessons and a familiarity with Afghanistan and its environs. Stewart suggests that the appropriate goal should be development not "governance". He argues for a severe reduction of foreign forces with special ops units tasked to deal with al-Qaeda. He suggests that the Taliban threat, per se, is exaggerated. The reader will recall that Stewart, a former British diplomat, is the author of highly regarded books on Iraq and on Afghanistan.
LRB · Rory Stewart: The Irresistible Illusion

Barry McCaffrey on Afghanistan

McCaffrey is a retired four-star general now on the faculty at West Point. His trip report from a recent command-sponsored visit to Afghanistan is informed and hard-hitting. The bottom line is that progress is being made in Afghanistan but that major problems remain, including: dysfunctional and corrupt provincial and local government, ineffectual central government, widespread misery, and a resilient and growing Taliban threat. He emphasizes the need for nation-building (the task that Bush and Co. decried as beneath the sole superpower).

McCaffrey paints 2009 as a year of decision. Among the military problems he identifies is an inefficient, sometimes dysfunctional U.S. and NATO command structure, insufficient NATO resources, an Afghan army that is improving but still needs a lot of training and materiel, and an over-stretched U.S. military ("we are at the point of breaking faith with our troops").

If U.S. deployments are reduced as expected in Iraq, don't expect the troops to get a break. When the can't-shoot-straight-Bush gang finally leaves in January, the next president is going to have to finish the job that has was left unfinished in 2002 when assets were sucked away from Afghanistan to prepare for the Iraq invasion.

Thomas Powers: on getting out of Iraq

Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have committed themselves to withdrawing from Iraq. As this essay explains, the new president will find accepting the consequences of withdrawal will be very hard to do. He will discover that the war bequest of George Bush will be very hard to disown. Powers predicts that the candidates in 2012 are likely to be talking about the challenges of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Profile of Bob Gates

Fred Kaplan offers a good glimpse of the man who succeeeded Donald Rumsfeld. My view is that Gates is a sensible realist who appreciates the limitations of U.S. military power. He has also thought carefully about the U.S. and its relationship with Iran. I find it notable that he pushed for the public release of the recent NIE on Iran and its nuclear program.

Robert Gates - Defense Secretary - International Relations - Politics - Iraq - Iran - New York Times