Saturday, June 20, 2009

Iranian commenter challenges the Ballen-Doherty poll

An Iranian commenter who must remain nameless has the following reaction to the electoral poll described in the Washington Post. The poll conducted three weeks before the presidential election reported that Ahmadinejad enjoyed a commanding lead.

"I think [that the poll] isn't so credible.... It [was taken] about 3 weeks before vote. This year has a very different year in iran because of the live TV debates between candidates in the last week of the vote. In those debates Mousavi, Karoubi and even Rezaii (who is not from the reformers camp and, as you now was the first Revolutionary Guard commander) tried to show the people that Ahmadinejad is a "liar". Mousavi explicitly used the "liar" phrase and Rezaee implicitly [said] the same thing. Some other factors in the live TV debates [contributed to a] lead by Mousavi and even Rezaii gained. So I think that the above mentioned poll [conducted] 3 weeks before the vote is not so credible."

And this additional comment from the observer:

"Moreover, Ahmadinejad had a very bad contribution to these debates. He condemned persons such as Rafsanjani and Natiq-Noori whom Khamenei directly chose for their current important positions, and they had some important posts, as presidency and head of the Islamic council, previously for years. By this approach has not only undermined Khamenei but also the whole period after Islamic revolution. So even his conservative proponents criticized him and inclined to Mohsen Rezaee who worked in this debates as a real professional with a program.

"Ahmadinejad also [revealed himself as] an immoral person ....when he [tried] to put Mousavi under duress by undermining Mousavi’s wife's university studies in a bad manner which later was [seen] as an irrelevant show.

"Karoubi, Mousavi, and Rezaee implicitly (not so implicitly, because he said “I don’t like to call you a “liar”, but prefer to say that you do not tell the truth!) called him a liar. Karoubi said about his lies about seeing a light sphere around him in his United Nation speech and his claim about US attempt to hijack him in Iraq and Italy! Ahmadinejad preferred not to answer to these criticisms. Mousavi and Rezaee tried to show his lies about economic statistical indicators.
You can add to it, that according to the same opinion poll, 90% of the people get their information from Iranian TV Channels. So these live debates between candidates, which as I told, was for the first time in Iran, could have a high effect on voters.

"There are some other factors which is helpful. Most of the “Maraaje” ( those who could give a FATWA), have not congratulated Ahmadinejad yet for his victory. They only congratulate people for their “strong presence in election. And this matter has angered some pro Ahmadinejad media.

"Leave all of this behind, it seems that the situation is something beyond mere an election fraud."

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