CGME at the APSA annual meeting in Washington, August 30th

The CGME is a quarter century old and meets annually with the APSA.

Conference Group on the Middle East Clawing Back Power:  Arab Regimes at a Time of Mobilized Publics
Date:	Saturday, Aug 30, 2014, 11:30 AM-1:00 PM
Location:	Shoreham Hotel, Omni Diplomat Ballroom
Chair(s):	Augustus Richard Norton Boston University
Author(s):	The Resiliency of Egypt#s %Deep State%: Are there any Challengers Left?  Denis J. Sullivan Northeastern University Failure is Forbidden: The Road to the Taif Agreement  Eric Bordenkircher UCLA An Ally or A Foe: The Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab Gulf States   Birol Baskan Georgetown University Open Fire on Protesters? A Turning Point in the Tunisian Transition  Landry Signé University of Alaska, Anchorage Beyond the ‘democratization and authoritarianism paradogma’ - towards a #genuine science of (Middle East) POLITICS’  Morten Valbjorn Aarhus University

Insights into the Repressive Character of the Government in Egypt

The response of the Egyptian government to the investigative report "All According to Plan" [حسب الخطة  Arabic link] by Human Rights Watch is extremely revealing and provides insights into the mentality of the al-Sisi regime.  In short, as reported by the flagship al-Ahram, HRW is biased, serves U.S. interests, is in cahoots with the Muslim Brotherhood and had no authority to conduct research in Egypt.  There is a deep-seated suspicion of foreign NGOs in Egypt. I have witnessed it numerous times over the past 35 years.

The latest episode, of course, serves a double purpose, viz., it stifles open discussion of the report and its serious accusations that Field Marshal al-Sisi sits at the helm of a repressive security apparatus that very likely committed crimes against humanity by conducting deliberate mass killings of demonstrators in 2013 following the toppling of Muhammad Mursi as President; and, it serves to warn indigenous rights oriented groups that--unlike HRW officials--they cannot escape reprisal arrests, torture and jail.  You can be sure that while many educated Egyptians with social media access are well aware of the HRW report, but would also confirm that the message to tread very carefully is indelibly received.

The government reaction is addressed by Egyptian Chronicles.

Even in comparison with the worst years of the Mubarak era, this is a very dark chapter in Egypt's modern history.

For official statements in Arabic.

Reprehensible repression in Saudi Arabia: five to ten year sentences for encouraging protests on Facebook

[Added: HRW offers more detail on the case:

"In the court judgment, which Human Rights Watch obtained, the charges against the seven varied. But the court convicted them all of joining Facebook pages to “incite protests, illegal gathering, and breaking allegiance with the king” and of “assisting and encouraging these calls and corresponding with the [Facebook pages’] followers and concealing them.” All seven were also convicted of violating article 6 of the Anti-Cyber Crime Law, which prohibits producing, sending, or storing any material via an information network that “harms public order.”
"The court imposed its harshest sentence – 10 years in prison – on Abd al-Hamid al-Amer. Prosecutors accused him of founding two Facebook groups, through which he allegedly “conscripted others to join the movements” and “gave them ideas and guidance on the important sites in which to protest and set the timing [of the protests].”
"None of the charges accused the seven of using or advocating violence, as the presiding judge confirmed in the judgment, saying, “Breaking allegiance [with the king] comes by way of arms and it comes by way of protests, marches, and writing articles and publications … the behavior of the [second] course … is sometimes the more dangerous and more malicious method.”"]

IGRC Commander Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari leaves little doubt about the Pasdaran's view toward reformist voices, including former President Khatami

In the interview, Jafari -- appointed to his post by the country's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei -- took it upon himself to outline the conditions he would set for the return to politics of reformists -- including former President Mohammad Khatami, who was elected to office twice with more than 70% of the popular vote.
"Members of the reformist camp who have not crossed the red lines can naturally participate in political campaigns," he said. "However, Mr. Khatami's success in his activities depends on his stances. Mr. Khatami did not pass his test successfully during the sedition incident and he showed a lot of support for the sedition leaders."

Persian link.

Emile Nakhleh's seminal study of political development in Bahrain has been republished with a new and substantive preface.

Highly recommended.

"Contrary to Saudi and Bahraini government claims, calls for reform are not a Shia thing or a recipe for sectarianism. Media reports indicate the sectarianism argument has been pushed by the Saudi and Bahraini leadership in order to justify their actions against Bahraini peaceful protesters. Many Bahrainis view the main goal of the Saudi presence in the country is to persecute the Shia community and silence all opposition voices. 
"The three key ingredients of the envisioned compromise involve a return to the 1973 constitution, a re-establishment of a popularly elected national Assembly, which the king’s father dissolved in 1975, and dissolving the current government, which has been headed by the king’s uncle, Shaykh Khalifa, since independence in 1971. The prime minister is perhaps the most disliked senior member of Al Khalifa because of perceived corruption, nepotism, and repression, according to academic analysis and media reports. Many Bahrainis also view him as a staunch opponent to reform within the ruling family. The opposition movement maintains that implementing these demands will lead to transparent and accountable government, a just distribution of wealth, recognition of freedoms of speech, assembly, and the press, and an independent judiciary." 

Bahrain: Choking Dissent by Toby Jones