Emile Nakhleh in the Financial Times on inevitable intervention in Syria

"So what should be done? The assistance should begin with establishing a haven for the opposition and the military personnel who defect from the regime, as in northern Iraq in 1991. Food, water, clothes, medical supplies and technical equipment should be dropped into the safety zone. Ankara would have to play a critical role in planning, and ultimately in maintaining and supplying the zone, as it would almost certainly have to be contiguous to Turkey.
"If Syrian forces violate the sanctuary, the west should arm the opposition and work with military defectors to organise more effective resistance. If that fails to deter the regime’s brutality and more deaths occur, the west should consider putting a limited number of “boots on the ground”, beginning with the “liberated” zone."

Six months ago Barack Obama called for Bashar al-Asad to step out of the way, so what is new about U.S. policy vis-a-vis Syria is not regime change lite, but an inching forward to intervention in Syria. The modality will be "humanitarian relief" but the effective delivery of aid cannot be done without security.  Since neither the Syrian government nor the fractious opposition can or will provide security, someone else will have to be involved. This means there will be a level of military intervention that will likely only increase with time. This may be the right answer, but we should not confuse ourselves about the slippery slope that follows, even if the initial involvement is limited to "safety zones" as Emile Nakhleh suggests, or the more elaborately sketched "no-kill zones" promoted by Anne-Marie Slaughter.  Absent a willing government in Damascus, any attempt to effectively bring a halt to the reprehensible violence in Syria will require armed intervention no matter the euphemism that is employed. 

Is the Potentate of Bahrain a suitable host of a Formula One race? Human Rights First says no. I agree.

Formula One racing has reportedly agreed to permit Bahrain to host a race later this year.  The event was to be in February, but was rescheduled due to the protests.  Some racing teams apparently will boycott the event.

I think that many online petitions are a waste of time, but this is one instance in which a large number of "signers" might deter both racers and advertizers from participating in the Bahrain event.  The petition is directed toward Red Bull, which sponsors an F1 team. [Added: Red Bull is also sponsoring a drift competition in Bahrain in June.]

Human Rights Watch on Crimes against Humanity in Syria

The report may be downloaded in full (for free) in English.  The Summary and Conclusions are available in Arabic.

[Added: Hamza Ali el-Khatib is the 14-year old whose savage murder has enflamed anger against the Syrian regime.  Links to relevant social media may be found here.]

Emile Nakhleh's seminal study of political development in Bahrain has been republished with a new and substantive preface.

Highly recommended.

"Contrary to Saudi and Bahraini government claims, calls for reform are not a Shia thing or a recipe for sectarianism. Media reports indicate the sectarianism argument has been pushed by the Saudi and Bahraini leadership in order to justify their actions against Bahraini peaceful protesters. Many Bahrainis view the main goal of the Saudi presence in the country is to persecute the Shia community and silence all opposition voices. 
"The three key ingredients of the envisioned compromise involve a return to the 1973 constitution, a re-establishment of a popularly elected national Assembly, which the king’s father dissolved in 1975, and dissolving the current government, which has been headed by the king’s uncle, Shaykh Khalifa, since independence in 1971. The prime minister is perhaps the most disliked senior member of Al Khalifa because of perceived corruption, nepotism, and repression, according to academic analysis and media reports. Many Bahrainis also view him as a staunch opponent to reform within the ruling family. The opposition movement maintains that implementing these demands will lead to transparent and accountable government, a just distribution of wealth, recognition of freedoms of speech, assembly, and the press, and an independent judiciary." 

Bahrain: Choking Dissent by Toby Jones

Bahrain: Physicans for Human Rights publish carefully documented report revealing systematic attacks against medical personnel, among many troubling findings

April 22, 2011 Report: Do No Harm: a Call for Bahrain to End Systematic attacks on Doctors and Patient

Missing medical personnel.

Bahrain's Ambassador to the U.S. should read the report.

Human Rights Watch details excessive use of force by Bahraini secruity forces: 18 deaths demand investigation

http://www.bahrainrights.org/enAlso relevant:  Amnesty International details official use of excessive force in Bahrain.  The Bahrain Center for Human Rights is a valuable site.

Human rights abuses.

Israel's announced modification of its blockade of Gaza

Cross-posted with Informed Comment Global Affairs.

Israel's decision to adjust its punitive blockade of Gaza is mainly intended to deflect international pressure that has grown since May 31st, when Israel commandeered the aid flotilla in international waters and killed nine activists.  The Israeli announcement, incidentally, came in English and was not repeated in Hebrew according to Haaretz.

The blockade has been severely criticized by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). The ICRC is an organization that goes out of its way to maintain a neutral stance, which it feels allows it to function effectively in conflict areas.  When it does take a position based in international law, it does so in a measured way.  Thus, the ICRC's finding that Israel vis-a-vis Gaza is not meeting its responsibilities under international humanitarian law, and is practicing "collective punishment" is important.  Furthermore, the ICRC has reiterated its position that the blockade is not merely a humanitarian issue.   Israel's "closure" of Gaza denies the people living there the opportunity to sustain normal economic opportunity and development. 

Of course, the blockade of Gaza was progressively tightened following the electoral victory of Hamas in 2006 with significant encouragement and support from the U.S. government.  The point was precisely to undermine the credibility of Hamas and sow discontent among Gazans.  After the capture of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in June 2006, and especially after Hamas thwarted Fatah's (U.S. supported) effort to topple it from power in 2007, Israel was even more invested with keeping the blockade in place.

Israel is now betting that by adjusting the arbitrary terms of reference for the shipment of food and consumer goods into Gaza, and by permitting limited construction to occur, it will be able to keep the blockade in place.  Perhaps so. 

My own reaction to Israel's decision is quoted in part in the Washington Post.  My full comment follows:

Israel's government is attempting to retain the blockade of Gaza by allowing international NGOs to import some raw materials while denying Gazans the materials they need to reconstruct their simple homes, to move out of tents and hovels into barely adequate homes. If Israel was serious about improving the living conditions of Gazans, it would stop preventing the exports of agricultural goods and allow the strip's simple manufacturing sector to resume making and selling everyday essentials. This latest decision by Israel is an arrogant in-your-face to the US and other concerned members of the international community. Watch the US government spokespersons for their reaction. If they commend Israel, then you may discount Obama's commitment to Middle East peace making heavily. 

Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, described the newly announced adjustments to the blockade as only "a step in the right direction."  Obama has described the Gaza humanitarian situation as "unsustainable."  Gibbs repeated that yesterday.  Will the U.S., in concert with the EU, keep up the pressure to end the collective punishment of Gaza and allow the Gazans to attempt to create a viable economy, or will the pressure ebb?  It is obviously too soon to tell, but one lesson of recent weeks is that absent diplomatic pressure, the status quo will continue.

A skillful diplomatic effort led the U.S. would end the punitive blockade, and lend renewed momentum to the flagging efforts of George Mitchell.  It is hard to imagine such an effort succeeding without the release of Gilad Shalit, a move toward reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, and an effective long-term ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.   That is a tall order, but Obama's aides insist he is deeply committed to Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking.

Goldstone Commission member Desmond Travers

"5. What is your view of the claim by Israeli officials that the IDF is the most “moral” army in the world?

"Given the tactics, the weapons used, and the indiscriminate targeting, I think this is a dubious claim."

Israeli report--no surprise--argues that its war was proportionate and respected humanitarian law

With the UN investigation headed by Richard Goldstone poised to release its report [in August], the new Israeli document is obviously intended to dampen Goldstone's impact. While the report refers to ongoing investigations of Israeli actions stemming from the war, the tone of narrative suggests that Israeli soldiers and officers will likely be absolved of any serious charges.

While the report avows Israel's deep respect for humanitarian law and Israel's regret for civilians' suffering, Israel's actions since the war ended would seem to undermine its claims.

For instance, Israel's systematic destruction of irrigation systems and agricultural wells in parts of Gaza indicates that one purpose of Israeli policy is to undermine Gazan's ability to sustain more than a subsistence economy at best.

The treatment of the 2008 ceasefire is revealing because it blames Hamas for ending the ceasefire, but says nothing about Israeli actions in November 2008 that effectively ended the ceasefire. These actions are explicitly noted in a report released by the Israeli Foreign Ministry (follow link here).

In short, those of you who have been following events closely will find no particular surprises here, but the report does offer Israel's official version of events.

Update: "Nothing to hide" IDF shuns Rabbis for Human Rights and their push for an independent inquiry into Gaza war actions.

Extensive testimony from the UN Fact-finding commission on the Gaza war chaired by Richard Goldstone

You will find links for Arabic and English videos of testimony before the commission from 28-9 June and 6-7 July, 2009. The videos offer authentic accounts of episodes in the Gaza war, as well as some systematic details on the utilities and health sectors.

Amira Hass on what's banned, what's not in Gaza

The few items merchants are allowed to trade in are divided into three categories: food, medicine and detergent. Everything else is forbidden - including building materials (which are necessary to rehabilitate Gaza's ruins and rebuild its infrastructure), electric appliances such as refrigerators and washing machines, spare machine and car parts, fabrics, threads, needles, light bulbs, candles, matches, books, musical instruments, crayons, clothing, shoes, mattresses, sheets, blankets, cutlery, crockery, cups, glasses and animals. Many of the banned products are imported through the tunnels and can be found in Gaza's markets.

Pasta, which had been forbidden in the past, is now allowed, after U.S. Senator John Kerry expressed his astonishment at the ban during a visit to Gaza in February. But tea, coffee, sausages, semolina, milk products in large packages and most baking products are forbidden. So are industrial commodities for manufacturing food products, chocolate, sesame seeds and nuts. Israel does allow importing fruit, milk products in small packages and frozen food products as well as limited amounts of industrial fuel.

A related article by Uri Avnery.

The evanescent two-state solution for Palestine and Israel

Hillary Clinton has garnered some headlines during her visit to Israel for emphasizing the inevitiability of a two-state solution. In contrast, incoming Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu aims to focus on improving economic conditions for Palestinians living in occupied West Bank, while continuing the colonization project that aims to make a viable Palestinian state impossible, except in the minds of gullible western politicians. The Palestinians are certainly not gullible, and with about 500,000 Israelis living either in East Jerusalem or in interconnected settlement clusters in the West Bank, they know that the tipping point is not far away if it has not already arrived.

Here is what Clinton had to say in press conference with Foreign Minister Livni on March 3, 2009 (the conference should be read in full):

"It is our assessment, as I expressed yesterday and again today, that eventually the inevitability of working toward a two-state solution seems inescapable. That doesn’t mean that we don’t respect the opinions of others who see it differently. But from my perspective, and from the perspective of the Obama Administration, time is of the essence on a number of issues, not only on the Iranian threat. We happen to believe that moving toward the two-state solution, step by step, is in Israel’s best interest. But obviously, it’s up to the people and the government of Israel to decide how to define your interests."

Even considering the subteties of diplomatic language, "the inevitability of working toward a two-state solution seems inescapable" sounds to me just like the "successful" incremental diplomacy of now Special Adviser to the Secretary Dennis Ross.

Meantime, did anyone hear a word from Clinton about Israeli settlements?

Tallying the Israeli gains and losses in Gaza

Article - WSJ.com

I plan to publish a longer assessment here, but there seems little doubt that the Gaza war was led to a significant shift in Israeli-Turkish relations, as illustrated in the following report:

Speaking from Ankara, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, said Israel should be barred from the United Nations while it continues to ignore UN demands to end the fighting in Gaza.

"How is such a country, which totally ignores and does not implement resolutions of the UN Security Council, allowed to enter through the gates of the UN?" he said.

Erdogan's comments came hours ahead of Friday's official visit to Turkey by Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general.

The Turkish leader also added his voice to widespread condemnation of Israel's bombing of a UN compound in Gaza on Thursday.

"The UN building in Gaza was hit while the UN secretary general was in Israel... this is an open challenge to the world, teasing the world," he said.

And also in Ankara, President Abdullah Gül has said he is "ashamed on behalf of humanity" because of Israel's offensive against the Gaza Strip. "I feel ashamed on behalf of humanity about what's happening. I feel sadness about the world's silence and inability to secure a cease-fire in an environment where so many children have died."

Post Gaza War: investigation of war crimes?

Thomas Friedman: "Education"=killling of innocent people

War crimes accusations against Israel continue (updated)

Frankly, had Israel hit Gaza fiercely for a few days and then stopped relatively few people would have been concerned. Israel doesn't seem to know when to stop. As a result, outrage is growing after repetitive, increasingly detailed reports of likely war crimes by Israel (often explained as "mistakes"* by Israeli officials). The fact is that knowledge of Israel's misbehavior is increasing in the United States, and the public outrage is growing. This is why Israel's Gaza war is quickly becoming a PR disaster that will color the public's evaluation of future Israeli claims.

Israel took advantage of the last days George W. Bush's regrettable administration to launch its campaign to decimate Gaza' infrastructure, cripple Hamas and "regain its deterrence." In doing so, Israel has illustrated the profound perils of a U.S. president who was excessively pliant to Israeli interests, and negligent in his concern for U.S. interests. Thanks to the ravages of the Israeli horde in Gaza, I suspect that President Barack Obama will be especially concerned not to repeat Bush's puppet act.

*"Mistakes" indicate fast and loose rules of engagement that reflect an insufficient respect for the Laws of Land Warfare, including the immunities of non-combatants, internationally protected persons and clearly marked institutions, such as hospitals, as well as the use of proscribed ammunition against civilians. If these mistakes sound familiar then you must be remembering the Lebanon war in 2006, when a similar pattern of mistakes occurred.

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Israelis 'shot at fleeing Gazans'

Claims have been received by the BBC and an Israeli human rights group that Israeli troops have fired on Gaza residents trying to escape the conflict area. Israel has strongly denied the allegations.

BBC journalists in Gaza and Israel have compiled detailed accounts of the claims.

Some Palestinian civilians in Gaza say Israeli forces shot at them as they tried to leave their homes - in some cases bearing white flags.

One testimony heard by the BBC and human rights group B'tselem describes Israeli forces shooting a woman in the head after she stepped out of her house carrying a piece of white cloth, in response to an Israeli loudhailer announcement.

The Israeli military has dismissed the report as "without foundation".

The BBC has spoken to members of another family who say they are trapped in their home by fighting and have been shot at when they tried to leave to replenish dwindling water and food supplies, even during the three-hour humanitarian lull.

Israel is denying access to Gaza for international journalists and human rights monitors, so it is not possible to verify the accounts.

B'tselem said it had been unable to corroborate the testimony it had received, but felt it should be made public.

'Home destroyed'

"Munir Shafik al-Najar, of Khouza village in the south-east of the Gaza Strip, told B'tselem and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) of a series of events on Monday which he said left four members of his extended family dead.

"He told the BBC that some 75 members of his extended family had ended up huddled in a house, surrounded by Israeli forces, after troops shelled the area and destroyed his brother's home on Sunday night.

"On Monday morning, he said the family heard an announcement over a loudspeaker.

""The Israeli army was saying: 'This is the Israeli Defence Forces, we are asking all the people to leave their homes and go to the school. Ladies first, then men.'

""We decided to send the women first, two by two," he said.

"First to step outside was the wife of his cousin, Rawhiya al-Najar, 48.

""The army was about 15 metres (50 feet) away from the house or less. They shot her in the head," he said.

"The woman's daughter was shot in the thigh but crawled back inside the house, he said.

And this today from Security Council on January 14, 2008:

"Terrorism, Mr. President, poses enormous harm to civilians in armed conflict. Terrorism turns civilians into targets, shields and weapons. "Acts, methods and practices of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations are activities aimed at the destruction of human rights." So stated the United Nations in clear and unambiguous terms." [The speaker was Israeli Permanent Representative Ambassador Gabriela Shalev].

Wapo gives major play to civilian casualties of the Gaza war, and particularly the IDF's failure to meet its obligations under international law.
"A senior IDF commander acknowledged last week that Israel is not holding back. "We are very violent. We do not balk at any means to protect the lives of our soldiers," the commander said in a briefing for journalists."

My own observations of the Israeli army in action have left me with the impression that the IDF, which is sometimes celebrated as a professional, highly trained army, is, in fact often unimpressive. The rank-and-file soldiers enjoy an enormous hardware advantage over most of their adversaries, but man-for-man I would say that that Jordanian army, for instance, is much more impressive. In 2006, in tight quarters fighting in southern Lebanon, the IDF was frankly out-fought. The Israeli army often employs rules of engagement that put the lives of innocent civilians at peril, as the Gaza war illustrates very clearly and as the quotation above illustrates. Moreover, the IDF often disdains and disregards the immunity of international actors, such as the United Nations. I want to be plain about the fact that the US military committed some of the same war crimes in Iraq that Israel seems to now be committing in Gaza; however, one of the key to the impressive success of leading U.S. Generals such as David Petraeus and Peter Chiarelli is that they understood that through their actions U.S. soldiers were creating more enemies, and they acted forcefully to change the behavior of their soldiers. In contrast, the IDF never seems to get it. Instead, I see a pattern of behavior that I can personally trace for nearly thirty years.

Thorough reporting of the ravages, casualties and likely war crimes by Israel in Gaza

If you are following the Gaza war then you know well that much of the material available is weak on facts. Israel has excluded journalists from Gaza to reduce the glare of publicity as it decimates the infrastructure of Gaza, and to shield the Israeli army while plays fast and loose with rules of engagement. Even if the international media were on the ground, let's face it, the dangers posed by the IDF would make reporting very hazardous. The result would be that a lot of reporting would be shaped by English speaking Israeli officials working in the service of IDF PR.

The by now ramshackle Hamas PR machinery is similarly intent getting its own messages across, and it would probably require a death wish for a foreign reporter to try to "imbed" with Hamas under the threat of the IDF killing machine.

As noted here, one UN agency has been providing valuable and objective daily reports, but they tend to be thin on details. Thus, it is important to draw attention to the al-Mezan Center for Human Rights that is providing some extraordinarily detail reporting on casualties, targeted areas and the weapons being used by the IDF, including white phosphorus. I include an excerpt from the report for January 12, 2009, below. Go the website (in English and Arabic) for more more data.

Al-Mezan Center for Human Rights

Date: 12 Jan 2009

IOF Continues Targeting Civilians in Gaza; Death Toll Rises to 876 and More Civilian Premises Destroyed

2:30PM Gaza Time (+2hrs GMT)

The Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) has escalated its war on the Gaza Strip for the 17th consecutive day, during which it has acted in violation of the rules of international law relevant to conflict and belligerent occupation, motivated by the failure of the international community to stand for the principles and rules itself had set. There is evidence indicating the perpetration of grave breaches of the Fourth Geneva Convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Times of War.

IOF's attacks on civilian targets, public infrastructure, and border areas have brought about enormous destruction of private property and infrastructure, as well as unprecedented loss of life. According to Al Mezan's careful monitoring, the IOF has killed at least 876 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip since the start of its Operation Cast Lead on 27 December 2009. This number includes at least 186 children and 61 women. This number is restricted to those whom Al Mezan has verified and double-checked. The Center estimates that between 200 and 240 children have been killed. Many of those have still been under the rubble of houses under areas under IOF's invasion. Moreover, tens of children who were killed on the first day of the attacks have not yet been verified; therefore, the Center prefers to wait until they are accounted for properly. Six of those who were killed by IOF were ambulance crewmen, who were killed while trying to reach victims of IOF's attacks. The number also includes 3 journalists and dozens of elderly people. Al Mezan estimates that at least 85% of the casualties were civilian non-combatants.

Moreover, at least 3,080 people have been injured and/or maimed during the same period. This number includes at least 634 children and 395 women.

During the IOF's military operations, it directly targeted 172 houses with guided missiles and shells. However, the number of houses that have been completely destroyed in these attacks is at least 472 houses. Another 3,000 to 4,000 houses have been partially destroyed. The IOF also destroyed 38 mosques; 13 of which were directly and wantonly targeted. 39 schools were damaged, of which 5 (and one university) were directly targeted. IOF attacks also destroyed 42 public civilian facilities; including CBO offices and quasi-governmental institutions. Furthermore, it destroyed 107 privately owned workshops and small industrial and commercial plants. IOF also destroyed 90 police and security installations and 25 sites that were used for military purposes by armed groups.

The above figures do not account for the attacks that targeted open areas and fields, or the dozens of bodies that remain under the rubble of in areas under IOF's invasion; especially in eastern Gaza City, eastern Beit Lahia and Jabalia as well as the eastern borders of Khan Younis, Rafah and middle Gaza district.

1. North Gaza District:

At approximately 2pm Saturday, 10 January Israeli aircrafts fired a missile at a group of young men in the As-Salatin area, west of Beit Lahia, killing Ahmad Ibrahim Jum'a, 25, and Umar Jum'a, 19.

At approximately 2:30pm also Saturday, IOF troops stationed in the town of Beit Hanoun opened fire at the Al-Bora neighborhood, killing an 18-year-old girl, Nariman Abdul-Karim Abu Odeh from a live bullet to her chest.

At approximately 4:20pm Saturday, an Israeli drone fired a missile at a small crowd near Barrawi gas station in Beit Lahia, injuring a 40-year-old pregnant women; Wafa' Al-Masri, and another 24-year-old woman, Ghada Al-Masri. The pregnant woman had to abort her fetus and had her leg amputated. The other woman had both her legs amputated.

At approximately 4:45pm Saturday, an Israeli aircraft fired a missile at the As-Sultan apartment compound in Jabalia town. The compound's residents started to evacuate it. However, IOF fired artillery shells at the entrance of the compound as people were evacuating, killing three of them, two of whom were children. They were identified as:

- Ali Kamal Al-Nuthor, 12;

- Amer Kamal Al- Nuthor, 15; and

- Shadi Fatho Ijneed, 27.

Another 11 people were injured, including one child.

At approximately 5:25pm Saturday, IOF troops stationed in Jabalia fired 8 artillery shells towards the eastern parts of the town. Al Mezan's field worker reported that the shells were used for the first time. After hitting the ground, a light bounced from each shell, not very high from the ground. As they landed, they caused fires around it.

About 30 minutes later, an Israeli aircraft fired a missile into a crowd in Beit Lahia. One man was critically injured, as a result. At 6:45pm, an aircraft fired a missile at the house of Nafiz Al-Helu in northern Beit Lahia, killing two of its residents and injuring three, including a woman and a child. Those who were killed were identified as:

- Mohammed Nafiz Al-Helu, 22; and (his sister)

- Ameena Nafiz Al-Helu, 18.

Two minutes after, aircraft fired missile at the Beit Lahia Park, destroying it.

At approximately 7:20pm Saturday, an Israeli aircraft fired a missile into a crowd of people who were sitting in front of a house in their neighborhood, killing 3 and injuring 6, including a 2-month-old baby. Those who were killed were:

- Rami Jamal Salman, 21;

- Abdul-Mu'ti Ratib Sulaiman, 20; and

- Sami Umar, 35.

At approximately 8:25pm Saturday, Israeli aircrafts raided a house owned by the Rayyan family in Jabalia, destroying it and damaging three neighboring houses. No casualties or injuries were reported in this raid.

At approximately 10:10pm Saturday, Israeli aircrafts raided the house of Waheed Ahmad in Jabalia refugee camp. The house was destroyed and three neighboring houses damaged; however, no casualties or injuries were reported in this raid.

At approximately 2am on Sunday, 11 January 2009, an Israeli aircraft fired a missile into a crowd of residents of the Al-Karama apartment compound, killing Ibrahim Ayish Salman, 25. When neighbors tried to help the victim, a second missile was fired at them, killing Ala' Fathi Bashir, 40, and his 18-year-old son, Sohaib. Yet, when neighbors tried to help them, aircrafts fired a third missile, killing a 40-year-old woman, Lamia's Hasan Bashir, and another 75-year-old woman, Jamila Hassan Zyadeh. Four other people were injured in this attack.

At approximately 3:35am on Sunday, Israeli troops fired an artillery shell at the Al-Karama area. The shell hit the house of Mohammed Khalaf and killed his cousins, Ibrahim Mohammed Khalaf, 35, and Bilal Yihia Khalaf. 25 minutes later, an Israeli aircraft raided the house of Tawfik Saqir, which is located near the Beit Lahia market. The house was destroyed completely and five neighboring houses were damaged.

At approximately 9:30 am on Sunday, 11 January 2009, an Israeli aircraft fired a missile into a crowd of children who were near the Olo Al-Azm Mosque in the north of Beit Lahia, killing the four of them; three girls and a boy. They were identified as:

- Haitham Yasser Ma'rouf, 12;

- Fatima Mohammed Ma'rouf, 16;

- Khawla Ramadan Ghabin, 16; and (her sister)

- Samar Ramadan Ghabin, 14.

On the next day, the body 14-year-old Abdul-Rahma Ghabin was found, raising the casualties of this attack to 5 children. According to Al Mezan Center's investigations, these children belong to families who had evacuated their homes and took shelter in the Al-Fakhora School, which was shelled by the IOF. They went back home with their parents to pick some clothing and other necessities and return to the shelter.

At 10am on the same day, medical sources at Shifa Hospital announced the death of 51-year-old Abdul-Hakim As-Sultan, who was injured inside his house in the As-Salatin areas western Beit Lahia.

At approximately 11:45am on Sunday, Israeli troops fired artillery shells at the Al-Jurun neighborhood in Jabalia. One shell hit the house of Khalid Abid, killing his 25-year-old son Khalid, and injuring 20-year-old daughter Shahira.

Later, at approximately 1.10pm Sunday, IOF troops fired artillery shells that hit houses in eastern Jabalia, killing Hueesin Nazmi Abu Sultan, 40, inside his house.

At approximately 3:05pm on Sunday, Israeli troops fired artillery shells at the Al-Bora neighborhood in Beit Hanoun, injuring a child inside her house. She was identified as Dalia Fareed Abu Odeh, 12. Another woman, Iman Sami Nusair, was injured.

At approximately 3:35pm on Sunday, Israeli troops fired artillery shells at eastern Jabalia, killing a 12-year-old boy, Mus'ab Abdul-Muhsin Khadir, and a 15-year-old girl, Amal Najeeb Alloush. Another 5 people were also injured.

At 4pm on the same day, the Emergency Administration at Kamal Udwan Hospital announced that four of its ambulances stopped as a result of the shortage in fuel.

At approximately 7:pm on Sunday, Israeli troops fired artillery shells at the Mas'oud Street in Janalia town, killing a 1-and-a-half-year-old girl, Tasnim Yasser Al-Rafat, inside her house. Another young man, 19-year-old Mohammed Khadir, was also killed inside his house in the area.

Between 7:50pm Sunday and 4pm Monday, Israeli aircrafts raided three houses in Jabalia a and Beit Lahia, destroying them completely and damaging 12 houses. The targeted houses were owned by Ibrahim Lubad and Zyad Al-Masri, from Beit Lahia, and Yousef Ghbeet from Jabalia.

At approximately 5am today, Monday 12 January 2009, medical sources announced the death of 33-year-old Sa'id Mahmoud Al-Amawi, who was injured in the IOF shelling of the Al-Fakhora School.

At approximately 5:30am Monday, Israeli aircrafts raided the house of Ali Al-Dhai in Jabalia, destroying it completely. Six minutes later, aircrafts raided the house of Mahmoud Abu Matar in Beit Lahia, destroying it and damaging 5 houses near it. One hour later, they raided the house Sheikh Zayid town's park, damageing it and many houses in its vicinity.

At approximately 7:35am Monday, Israeli troops fired artillery shells at houses in eastern Jabalia and Beit Lahia, killing a 34-year-old woman, Afaf Hasan Jum'a, inside her house.

At approximately 7:40am Monday, Israeli aircrafts raided a farm in the Al-Nuzha Street in Jabalia town, injuring 3 girl-children.

At approximately 7:35am Monday, Israeli aircrafts raided the house of Sa'di Al-Jamal in Jabalia, destroying the house and damaging three houses and a kindergarten near it. At 8am, medical sources announced the death of a woman, 22-year-old Amal Al-Madhoun, who was injured on 9 January 2009 by IOF snipers.

At approximately 12:05pm Monday, Israeli aircrafts raided a vegetable stand owned by Yasser Shbair in the Sheikh Zayid town, injuring him critically. Later, the corpse of Khalid Al-Abid, 21, was found in the As-Salatin neighborhood western Beit Lahia.

Imagine a war in Los Angeles with armor, jets, artillery and heavily armed infantry

The IDF has been dropping leaflets in Gaza urging that civilians flee from their homes. Some people who flee their homes for other districts of Gaza find that the same warnings have been dropped in the areas where they have sought refuge. In the Lebanon war of 2006 the IDF used its warnings as a rationale for killing zones where anyone moving was considered to be an enemy.

It has frequently been noted that the people of Gaza are trapped. They have nowhere to run, but I suspect that many have no idea how densely populated Gaza really is and how difficult it is for many people to find safe shelter. Thanks to one of my bright graduate students at Boston University, I offer the following data:

Think of Gaza as a single city. Gaza's population density is variously estimated at between 3,823 persons per sq. KM and 4,270 per sq. KM. The high-end estimate of 4,270 would make it the 54th most dense city in the world, just behind Warsaw at 4,300 persons per sq. KM and only a few spots behind Tokyo/Yokohama at 4,750 persons per sq. KM. The low end estimate of 3,823 persons per sq. KM would place it just ahead of Birmingham, UK (3,800 persons per sq. KM) or Berlin (3,750 persons per sq. KM). The Gaza strip is a good deal more densely populated than the cities of Paris (3,550 persons per sq. KM), Rome (2,950 persons per sq. KM), Dublin (2,950 persons per sq. KM), Beirut (2,800 persons per sq. KM), Los Angeles (2,750 persons per sq. KM), San Francisco/Oakland (2,350 persons per sq. KM), Sydney (2,100 persons per sq. KM), and New York (2,050 persons per sq. KM). Finally, Boston, which has just 900 persons per sq. KM is a veritable park-land when compared to Gaza. The city of Tel Aviv has a population density of 5,050 persons per sq. KM, by the way.

Now imagine conducting a military campaign with field artillery, tank guns and thousands of bombs in Tokyo, Birmingham or Los Angeles. Add the fact that the people living in those cities cannot flee, but are stuck there.

Here are the links used to find the data reported here: Jewish Community Online, CIA, and City Mayors.

Gareth Porter on Hamas offer of a ceasefire

As revealed here in earlier posts, and as verified in a systematic study by Professor Nancy Kinwasher of MIT and her colleagues, the ceasefire put in place in June 2008 was in fact "working". (Kinwasher's study is consistent with official Israeli data.) The arrangement began to unravel in early November after Israel, not Hamas broke ceasefire. In this timely analysis, Porter notes that Hamas offered, through a mediator (General Omar Suleiman, Head of Egyptian Military Intelligence) an extension of the ceasefire to Israel on December 14th. Hamas insisted that Israel end its draconian embargo of Gaza. Israel did not respond to the offer, but it is clear that Israel had no intention of lifting the embargo, which has pauperized Gazans to the point that half of the population fell below the poverty line when the war began. (Incidentally, as the Gaza war continues, UN officials estimate that 80 percent of the population now lacks the means to support itself.)
Israel is still intent not to lift the embargo lest Hamas claim that it has won, whereas Hamas is not willing to accept a ceasefire unless the embargo is lifted. So, the humanitarian crisis grows, the likelihood of further wars grows and people, civilians increasingly, die.

MIDEAST: Israel Rejected Hamas Ceasefire Offer in December: "WAR ON GAZA
IPS reports on the consequences of Israel's devastating bombardment of Gaza
MIDEAST: Tehran Opts for 'Moral Support' in Gaza War"